At least 100 houses collapsed in Tahoua after heavy rainfalls hit the city on 15 July. There is little information available on needs although damages are said to be extensive. In 2018, at least 170,000 people are expected to be affected by floods during the rainy season, usually ranging from June to October.
Similar heavy rains are also affecting the bordering state of Katsina in Nigeria, where at least 44 people were killed, 20 people have been reported missing and 500 houses have been damaged in the city of Jibia.
Between 3 and 5 July heavy rainfall, ranging from 119 to 159 millimeters, has triggered waterlogging in Matarbari union of Maheshkhali Upazila in Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh Meteorological Department 06/07/2018). 22 out of 31 villages, are waterlogged and inundated, affecting an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 people (Government D-Form 08/07/2018).
On 23 June Fulani herdsmen attacked Berom farmers in Plateau state, triggering displacement in Barkin Ladi local government area (LGA), Jos South LGA, Riyom LGA, Bokkos LGA and Mangu LGA. As of 9 July, most reports state that over 38,000 people are displaced in 31 camps, though some estimates are much higher. The camps are overcrowded and needs include urgent shelter, wash, health and food assistance. The violence since June is the latest spike in tensions between Fulani herdsmen and local farmers in the Nigerian Middle Belt region, which have been growing since January 2018.
Drought and conflict are triggering displacement in Afghanistan. Almost 20,000 people were displaced due to conflict in June, mostly in Nangarhar and Wardak provinces. Over 20,000 people have been forced to migrate due to drought, since the beginning of April. 4,000 were displaced within Badghis province, during the last week of June. The total number of IDPs in 2018 is over 132,000 countrywide.
1,149 cholera cases (including 92 deaths) have been reported in Kasai Oriental, Sankuru, and Lomami provinces since February, with the outbreak intensifying since June, with over 270 cases reported. This is the second cholera outbreak in Greater Kasai region since the crisis first erupted in August 2016. Kasai was cholera-free since 2004, and these outbreaks are a significant indication of a deteriorating humanitarian situation. Poor WASH and health infrastructure within the context of ongoing insecurity and displacement is exacerbating the fairly quick spread of the disease.
Around 400,000 people have been newly displaced on both sides of the regional borders of Gedeo (SNNP region) and Guji (Oromia region) zones since 1 June (ECHO 19/06/2018). In total, some 700,000 people have been displaced since a new wave of violence between the Gedeo and Guji communities started on 13 April. Insecurity continues to prevent IDPs from returning to their areas of origin (OCHA 14/06/2018; OCHA 22/05/2018; UNICEF 10/05/2018). IDPs are staying in shelters in public buildings and spontaneous IDP sites.
Outlook for June to December 2018
Frequent and recurrent protests across the country in recent years indicate an already high level of political tension that is likely to grow in the lead-up to presidential elections on 23 December.
Since the beginning of 2015, over 700 protests across the country resulted in hundreds of civilian casualties, and the likelihood of further political violence is high.
Heavy rainfall recorded in northeastern Bangladesh since 12 June exacerbated by a sudden increase of river water levels due to upstream flooding in India resulted in severe flooding in Moulvibazar and Sylhet districts. Flooding affected the majority of upazilas in both districts, leading to severe infrastructure damage and acute needs.
Over 2,000,000 people live in the most affected upazilas. At least 250,000 of them have been affected, and over 12,000 reside in temporary shelters in Moulvibazar. An estimated 570,000 people have also been affected in Sylhet.
Fuego Volcano, the most active volcano in Guatemala erupted on 3 June generating a column of ash, lava, and pyroclastic flows up to 10km from the crater. The eruption affected over 1.7 million people in Sacatepéquez, Escuintla, and Chimaltenango departments. On 5 June a new violent descent of pyroclastic lava flow led to new evacuations and casualties. A new lahar (volcanic mudflow) formed on 7 June and is descending through the valleys of Santa Teresa, Mineral, and Taniluya. Some 12,407 people have been evacuated and over 4,000 are living in emergency shelters.
Landslides are caused by a combination of natural factors (heavy rainfall, cyclones, flooding), and man-made factors. In Bangladesh, landslides are mostly triggered by heavy rainfall, usually during June. However, the underlying causes of landslide include deforestation, hill cutting, and unregulated development work. Moreover, poverty and landlessness force poor people to live in risky hill-slopes (Natl Plan 2010-2015). All of these factors not only cause landslides but also contribute to the exacerbation of their impact.
Tropical Cyclone Sagar with winds between 110 -115 km/h formed in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and Somalia on 19 May. It made landfall on the northwest coast of Somaliland as a Tropical Storm with 56 km/h winds, resulting in a year’s worth of heavy rains and flooding (ADAM 19/05/2018). The storm caused extensive destruction, including loss of livestock and crops, destruction of homes and critical infrastructure, and mass displacement (OCHA 23/05/2018; OCHA 20/05/2018).
Heavy rains and flooding have continued to compound an already fragile humanitarian situation in the southern and central parts of Somalia, worsening conditions for communities who recently endured a long period of drought (OCHA 25/05/2018). The floods have resulted in the destruction of homes, critical infrastructure, latrines, and the loss of livestock and crops. There is need for shelter and NFIs, as well as WASH assistance.
Anticipated scope and scale
The education system continues to be targeted in the Anglophone crisis. Schools have been attacked, looted or burned down in Southwest and Northwest regions, and fear of attacks is reducing attendance. Several schools have remained closed for the past two academic years, and exams due to take place between May and June are being disrupted. An estimated 42,500 displaced children face difficulties accessing education.
The economic crisis in Venezuela has led to a deterioration of the humanitarian conditions and increased humanitarian needs. Import restrictions and hyperinflation reduce availability and access to basic goods and services. The economic crisis is exacerbated by a political crisis revolving around the erosion of democratic institutions. While the number of people in need in Venezuela and the severity of need is unclear due to lack of data, surveys conducted by local organisations point to an increasingly dire situation.
On 19 May, Tropical Cyclone Sagar made landfall in North-western Somaliland bearing winds in excess of 120 km/h and an entire year’s worth of rain (200-300mm) affecting approximately 700,000 people and widespread destruction of property, infrastructure and the loss of livestock (Government of Somaliland 21/05/201; GDACS 19/05/2015; SWALIM 18/05/2018). The cyclone led to flooding that impacted populations previously devastated by droughts and that had not yet recovered, further worsening existing food insecurity. Urgent needs include food, shelter, WASH, and health (OCHA 20/05/2018).
On 5 January, volcanic activity on Kadovar Island, one of the six Schouten Islands of Papua New Guinea, prompted all 591 residents to evacuate. The islanders have been relocated to the Dandan Care centre, located in Turubu LLG (East Sepik Province). The 3.5 hectare site is located on a narrow strip of land physically bound by steep hills on the inland side and the sea. The ground is low-lying and sandy. It is prone to flooding during heavy rains as two running creeks (flowing from inland) flow through either side of the site as they flow out to sea.
Floods by nature are complex events caused by climate variability and a range of human activities, including inappropriate development planning. There are different ways of classifying and categorising floods according to geographic and geophysical characteristics. In Bangladesh, floods are most commonly classified as:
On 8 May, an outbreak of the Ebola virus was declared after two cases were confirmed in Bikoro Health Zone, Equateur province. 39 cases have been reported since early April, including 19 deaths (49% CFR). So far only Equateur province is affected, but there is a risk that the virus will spread elsewhere.
Equateur province in DRC has been affected by an outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD). The outbreak is believed to have begun in early April and was officially declared on 8 May. Since 3 May, 39 suspected cases have been reported, two of which have been laboratory confirmed. The full scale of the outbreak is still being determined as poor infrastructure and the remote location constrain response to the outbreak.
Anticipated scope and scale