The Global risk analysis outlines 18 contexts where a significant deterioration is expected to occur within the next six to nine months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs.
ACAPS analysts conduct daily monitoring and independent analysis of more than 150 countries to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
The knowledge acquired in this process enables analysts to develop a solid understanding of crisis dynamics and identify trends as well as potential risks, which enabled the selection of these 18 contexts:
Nineteen districts in Sindh and 11 districts in Balochistan province are facing moderate to severe drought with below average rainfall from June to November. The lack of water puts agriculture and livestock at risk.
There is no data on the amount of people affected by drought. Over 600 children have died this year in drought-hit Thar, Sindh province due to contaminated water and malnutrition. Health and livelihood concerns are high.
Torrential rainfall on 22 and 23 November caused severe flooding across Iraq. Ninewa and Salah al-Din are the most affected governorates with bridges and roads damaged and villages inundated with water. In total, at least 22,000 people in Ninewa governorate and 10,000 people in Salah al-Din governorate are affected, including people still displaced from conflict. Thousands of civilians are newly displaced due to the floods.
Since April IDPs have increasingly started to return to their areas of origin in the Pool region.
Returns are very high in the districts of Kindamba, Vinza, Kimba, and Mayama, and lower in Mbandza Ndounga and Goma Tse Tse.
Both residents and returnees in these areas face severe needs including drinking water, basic healthcare services, and education facilities. Food insecurity is also critical, due to consecutive poor harvest seasons.
Read more about Congo
An IDP settlement in Alindao town was attacked on 15 November after tensions rose between Union for Peace in Central African Republic (UPC) fighters and anti-Balaka militias in the area. At least 60 people were killed and more than 18,000 people fled the city to find safety in other parts of town or in the bush. The IDP camp burned down, leaving the camp population in urgent need of shelter and NFI support.
Problem statement Intra- and inter-country movement is a central feature of West African life. Some people move as a result of conflict, but most move for social and economic reasons. Migration within and from the region has often had a positive effect on household, local and national economies, including through remittances and access to educational and employment opportunities. It is often a necessary way of coping with limited economic opportunities, poverty, subsistence and harsh environments, but can also be aspirational.
ACAPS has decided to stop publishing the CrisisAlert app as of 31 December 2018 due to limited traffic since its launch in February 2017.
Dropping one project and already working on a new one!
A new exciting project, in collaboration with INFORM, is about to take off at ACAPS. The Global Crisis Severity Index, a rigorous analytical framework that will allow us to inform a shared and objective understanding of crisis severity.
15,000 people in Ninewa province and 10,000 people in Salah al-Din province are in need of assistance after severe flooding from 22 November. Thousands of people including many IDPs are displaced. Humanitarian needs include food, NFIs, and shelter, as well as safe drinking water and medicine but bridges and roads are inundated and blocked by debris, hampering response. Other provinces across Iraq also face access constraints due to floods, including Missan, Wasit and Basra provinces.
At least 37 civilians were killed during the attack of an IDP settlement in Alindao town, Basse Kotto prefecture. Some 20,000 people were newly displaced as large parts of the camp were burnt down and tensions remain high between UPC fighters and Anti-Balaka militias in the area. Needs include shelter, food, and NFIs.
This Rohingya Influx Overview (RIO) details how needs of the Rohingya population in Cox’s Bazar district have evolved in key sectors and identifies new issues that have arisen. The main timeframe covered is between July and September/October.
• Protection concerns cut across WASH subsectors, as safety issues have impacted refugees’ access to latrines, bathing facilities, and water points. Women and girls are particularly affected by the lack of locks, lighting, and gender-segregated facilities.
Ghazni’s Malistan and Jaghori districts home to mainly Hazaras, an ethnic Shi’ite minority, are under siege. Over 5,600 people have left the area since fighting escalated on 7 November. There are grave protection concerns for the remaining population.
Access to the highly contested province is constrained, hampering humanitarian assistance and movement of people trying to flee violence.
Criticism of the government’s response sparked protests in Kabul; a nearby suicide bomb killed at least 6 people.
Armed secessionists have attacked Cameroon Development Company workers in an attempt to destabilise the company and the region ahead of Paul Biya's presidential inauguration.
Meanwhile, 79 children were kidnapped by armed secessionists from a boarding school in Bamenda, the largest incident of its kind since the anglophone crisis began in 2016.
Read more about Cameroon
Since 13 October, several thousand migrants have left Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala to form two large caravans and multiple smaller groups travelling by foot towards the United States border. At least 9,000 people have entered Mexican territory since 19 October. Protection concerns as well as urgent food, water, health and shelter needs have been reported.
Since 13 October, several thousand migrants have left Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala to form two large caravans and multiple smaller groups travelling by foot towards the United States border. Protection concerns, as well as, urgent food, water and shelter needs, have been reported. Guatemalan and Mexican authorities are attempting to block migrants’ progress or return them to their countries of origin. The caravan has become a politicised issue.
The traffic lights diagram above is based on the result of multisectoral priortrisation tool developed by the Analysis Hub. The tool uses NPM site assessment Round 12 data from five sectors to priortise needs geographically, at the majhee block level. The 32 indicators are selected from five sectors to build a composite index, and combined to present the Basic Needs Gap index at the majhee block level.
The monsoon season in Bangladesh runs from June to September, preceded and succeeded by cyclone seasons, running from April to May and from October to November.
Primary data available from March, before the beginning of the first cyclone season in 2018, and from July, midmonsoon, allows for a first analysis of the impact of the cyclone/monsoon season so far.
Notable changes between March and July include:
437,000 people have been internally displaced since the beginning of the anglophone crisis in 2016, mainly in Southwest and Northwest regions, but also in the francophone regions of Littoral and West.
Many crisis-affected people fled to the bush where they live in precarious conditions and humanitarian access is difficult.
Read more about Cameroon.
12,000 people have been affected by flooding and landslides in Bukalasi and Buwali sub-counties in Bududa district since 11 October. The Bududa landslide disaster followed three days of consistent and heavy rainfall in the areas around Mount Elgon National Park in Bukalasi. 858 people have been displaced (The Tower Post 14/10/2018). 51 deaths have been reported (Howwe 14/10/2018).
Reported humanitarian needs are shelter, food, healthcare and NFIs (ActAlliance 15/10/2019).
Anticipated scope and scale
Over 257,800 people have returned from northeastern Angola to the greater Kasai region of DRC since 1 October. During displacement, DRC nationals have experienced violence and human rights abuses, and many have arrived with almost nothing. Food, medical, protection and shelter interventions are required, as the host communities in greater Kasai were themselves already facing severe food insecurity and a cholera outbreak.
Anticipated scope and scale
On 7 October, presidential elections in Cameroon were accompanied by electoral related violence in the anglophone regions of Northwest and Southwest. The new violence is likely to have displaced more people, which would add to the estimated number of 246,000 that were displaced as of August 2018 since the beginning of the crisis in 2017. The newly displaced are likely to be in need of food, shelter, health and wash assistance.
Anticipated scope and scale