Improved weather favors the growth of crops
Rainfall conditions continue to improve in all agro-ecological zones of the country. This favors the development of sorghum, groundnuts and maize that are in heading phase and pigeon pea that maintains its normal vegetative cycle, while roots and tubers are growing or been harvested in certain areas.
Most parts of the region are experiencing a slow start to the rainfall season, with below average early rainfall received early in the season
Short term forecasts suggest that the slow onset of rains will continue until at least late November, potentially delaying planting of summer season crops in several areas
Seasonal forecasts suggest high chances for normal to below normal rains in many areas this year, with implications for crop production potential
La hausse globale de la production de céréales de 34 pourcent par rapport à la moyenne (CPS/SDR) malgré des poches localisées de baisse de production liées aux inondations et à l’insécurité civile, augure d’une disponibilité moyenne à supérieure à la moyenne de céréales durant l’année alimentaire 2018-19. La disponibilité des récoltes en cours permet l’accès des ménages aux vivres ; ce qui met la plupart des ménages dans le pays en insécurité alimentaire Minimale (Phase 1 de l’IPC).
Average household access to food due to overall good ongoing harvests
The overall 34 percent increase in cereal production of over last average (CPS/SDR) despite localized pockets of production defecits due to floods and civil insecurity bodes well for average to above-average cereal availability in the 2018-19 consumption year. The availability of ongoing harvests allows households to access food; this puts most households in the country in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.
Rainfall anomalies causing crop damage and low income are affecting the region’s food security
In Central America, the high season for labor demand that starts in October and lasts until March is increasing income options for the poorest households, compared to the previous months. However, low international coffee prices are likely to lead to a decreased level of coffee harvest related income, decreasing food access for certain households.
Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists in Yemen and South Sudan
Famine (IPC Phase 5) risk persists and substantial scale-up of assistance needed
L’insécurité alimentaire demeure toujours préoccupante dans les zones de conflits
Emergency assistance needs are atypically high through the lean season across the country
Food insecurity remains a concern in conflict areas
Despite flooding in several areas and damage from crop pests, the ongoing harvest is expected to be average to above average is improving household food availability and diversity and is contributing to revenues from partial sales of the harvest. The pastoral situation is generally satisfactory with good pasture and water availability. Additionally, the good availability of water will be beneficial for dry season crops.
As pastoral and some agricultural areas cope with poor rainfall, conflict also drives needs in other areas
• Southeastern pastoral areas continue to recover from drought in 2016 and 2017, while northern pastoral Afar experienced poor rainfall throughout 2018. These areas will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least May 2019. Localized areas that saw poor 2018 Belg and/or Kiremt seasonal performance will also experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
Poor precipitation continues in early November
Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators continue to improve, as evidenced by gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Consumer price index (CPI) has been on a general downward trend but increased slightly between August and September. Global crude oil prices are improving, and Nigerian foreign exchange reserves continue to grow (Figure 1).
• The volume of monitored commodities increased significantly by 44 percent in the month of May owing to increased availability from on-going harvests.
• Maize grain traded increased by 31 percent, with flows from Mozambique to Malawi being highest (Table 1).
• Volumes of maize meal traded increased by 94 percent. Flows from Zambia to DRC have been dominant (Table 2).
• Rice volumes increased marginally by 6 percent, with flows from Tanzania to Zambia being largest (Table 3).
Persiste déficit de lluvia en áreas de Guatemala y Honduras
Elevated food security outcomes persist again in 2018 in the northeast during the harvest season
FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through November 10, 2018 and is produced in collaboration with U.S.
Deyr rainfall expected to sustain current outcomes, except in some pastoral areas