Implementation of the Minsk ceasefire agreement remains deadlocked. Russia’s first proposal of a UN peacekeeping force in Ukraine’s breakaway eastern regions cannot work, but it opens a much-needed window for diplomacy.
What’s the issue? In September 2017, Moscow proposed the deployment of UN peacekeepers along the line dividing Ukrainian from separatist and Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. Such a mission would not help end the conflict. To do that, peacekeepers would need a greater role, including helping secure the Ukraine-Russia border.
Eight members of International Crisis Group’s Ambassador Council joined a trip to Lebanon alongside Crisis Group staff in November 2017 to understand the consequences of the Syrian war since 2011. Here two Council members reflect on the Syrian refugees they met and Lebanon’s increased fragility as a result of its enormous new burdens.
Syrian accents are now omnipresent in Lebanon. Busy streets are choked with an influx of Syrian cars. At least 1,700 informal Syrian refugee settlements crowd the landscape from Beirut to the Bekaa Valley.
Créée en février 2017, la Force conjointe du G5 Sahel est une force de nouvelle génération dans un espace sahélien où se bousculent des initiatives militaires et diplomatiques parfois concurrentes. Il ne suffira pas de fournir des armes et de l’argent pour résoudre les crises sahéliennes. Pour atteindre ses objectifs, la force doit gagner la confiance des populations et des puissances régionales et obtenir leur soutien.
Launched in February 2017, the G5 Sahel joint force is an experiment in a region crowded by sometimes-competing military and diplomatic initiatives. Weapons and money will not be enough to resolve the Sahel’s crises, so the force must win the trust and support of both local populations and regional powers.
Les manœuvres dilatoires du président Kabila paralysent la transition politique de la République démocratique du Congo alors que les dissensions internes et la répression gouvernementale affaiblissent l’opposition. Face à une crise de plus en plus grave, les acteurs occidentaux et africains doivent coordonner leur approche, soutenir les efforts déployés en vue de mener des élections démocratiques et encourager l’ouverture de l’espace politique.
President Kabila’s delaying tactics are holding hostage DR Congo’s political transition, while internal strife and government repression are weakening the opposition. Western and African actors need to coordinate their approach to the deepening crisis, support the advancement of democratic elections and encourage the opening of political space.
The mass flight of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar’s Rakhine State has created a humanitarian catastrophe and serious security risks, including potential cross-border militant attacks. The international community should press the Myanmar government to urgently implement the Annan commission’s proposals, including as regards discrimination, segregation and citizenship.
What’s the issue?
Watch List Updates complement International Crisis Group’s annual Watch List, most recently published in February 2017. These early-warning publications identify major conflict situations in which prompt action, driven or supported by the European Union and its member states, would generate stronger prospects for peace. The Watch List Updates include situations identified in the annual Watch List and/or a new focus of concern.
This update includes entries on:
Growing discontent threatens the dysfunctional and corrupt political system built by President Museveni, who is now manoeuvering to extend his three decades in power by raising a 75-year age limit on presidential candidates. As security, governance and economic performance deteriorates, Uganda needs urgent reforms to avoid greater instability
What’s the issue? Popular discontent is growing over President Museveni’s apparent desire to remain in power while governance, economic performance and security deteriorate.
Nairobi/Bruxelles, 25 octobre 2017
The fight against Boko Haram in Cameroon’s Far North, the country’s poorest region, has exacerbated the already-delicate economic situation and placed under strain traditional socio-economic roles. The government and international partners should embrace development policies that take into account the local population’s resilience strategies and adaptation to new economic realities.
Addis Ababa, 22 November 2017
The international community’s failure to address Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis has resulted in massive displacement from Rakhine state. The crisis poses a clear threat to Myanmar’s democratic transition. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – Third Update early warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to support strong Security Council action and push for multilateral and bilateral engagement with Myanmar’s civilian and military leaders.
What’s happening? On 26 October, Kenya is scheduled to hold repeat presidential elections following the Supreme Court’s annulment of the previous vote held on 8 August. Proceeding in current conditions risks escalating the political crisis.
Why is the vote contentious? President Uhuru Kenyatta says he is ready for the vote, while opposition leader Raila Odinga refuses to participate, citing the lack of electoral reform since 8 August. The election commission chairman has said that he cannot deliver a credible election on 26 October.
What happened? On 14 October 2017, twin truck bombings in Somalia’s capital,
Mogadishu, killed upwards of 300 people. Al-Shabaab, an Islamist insurgency, was almost certainly behind the attack, but has not claimed responsibility.
Why did it happen? Al-Shabaab has been fighting the government since 2007.
The targets of the attack are unclear, though may have been government buildings and the base of African Union forces fighting Al-Shabaab.
Longtemps épargné par les groupes armés actifs au Sahel, le Burkina Faso est confronté à des attaques de plus en plus fréquentes et meurtrières visant la partie nord du pays. Si l’insécurité résulte en grande partie d’une extension du conflit malien, la crise au Nord du Burkina révèle une dynamique sociale endogène.