The Humanitarian Overview: An analysis of key crises into 2018 focuses primarily on the crises that are expected to deteriorate in the coming year and outlines the likely corresponding humanitarian needs.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), we have identified 12 countries that are likely to face deteriorating humanitarian situations in 2018. We include a further six countries where the crises are already severe and likely to continue in a similar trend.
Humanitarian assistance is interrupted for at least 28,000 people in Bataganfo, Ouham, following the suspension of the activities of an NGO that was attacked on 7 September. Only MSF is now providing emergency care in the area.
Humanitarian space has severely shrunk in Batangafo since clashes between ex-seleka and anti-balaka resumed at the end of July, and several humanitarian organisations have suspended their operations.
Our methodology uses 9 indicators, grouped under 3 categories:
Access of humanitarian actors to affected population
Access of people in need to humanitarian aid
Security and physical constraints Each category is measured through proxy indicators, such as violence against personnel, denial of needs, or active hostilities.
Data is collected at the country level and may therefore not show disparities between sub-regions.
Tensions between Israel and Hamas have been escalating since the beginning of 2017. Shelling between both the Gaza Strip and southern Israel first increased at the beginning of the year and has been regular since, as both Israel and Hamas’ positions have hardened.
Tensions are also growing between Hamas and Fatah, and Hamas is finding itself increasingly isolated. 2017 has seen a worsening of living conditions in Gaza, which echoes the situation just before the conflict in 2014, and prompts concerns that larger-scale violence will break out between Hamas and Israel in Gaza.
SAM is at 4.6% and GAM at 35.6% in Turkana and Marsabit counties – double the emergency thresholds. Current rains mean cholera is expected to increase – it has been reported in Tana River county and in Dadaab refugee camps for the first time this year.
Syria: In recent weeks, clashes between Islamic State and other non-government forces over the border area between Turkey and Syria have intensified. IDPs in camps located along the border are at risk: over 35,000 have fled the area since 14 April and are in need of protection. Additional displacement is likely.
Iraq: The humanitarian situation in besieged Fallujah continues to deteriorate. Supply lines have been cut off since December, when government forces surrounded the city. Islamic State is reportedly preventing people from leaving. Prices of basic food stuffs are 500% above December prices for the third consecutive month. Acute shortages of food, medicine and fuel, as well as cases of starvation and suicide, have been reported.
Snapshot 31 March–5 April 2016
Syria: The most serious violation of the cessation of hostilities occurred on 2 April around Aleppo, when fighting broke out between government forces and non-government forces. In addition, eight of 18 besieged areas were not reached by humanitarian assistance in February and March, including around 250,000 people in Darayya and Eastern Ghouta in Rural Damascus.
Snapshot 23–30 March 2016
South Sudan: Between 20,000 and 50,000 people are now reported to have been displaced in Wau county, Western Bahr el Ghazal, since fighting escalated in February. Houses have been looted and burned and there are reports of killings and rape in the area around Wau town. At least 8,000 people are sheltering in public buildings or with host communities in Mboro town: food, water and shelter are priority needs.
Snapshot 16 – 22 March
Somalia: On 15 March Al Shabaab moved into Puntland and seized control of Garad, a port town. In the following days Al Shabaab captured another coastal town in Nugaal region and attacked a security checkpoint near Bosaso. Most of the residents are reported to have fled the area. Al Shabaab has previously been active in Puntland, but generally around its base of the Galgala Mountains, west of Bosaso, and it has not attempted to take territory.
Snapshot 9 – 15 March
Yemen: Insecurity in Aden is increasing, with attacks carried out on civilian targets. At least 150 people have been reported killed in the past three months, including at least 50 in March. Humanitarian actors have increasing difficulty to carry out operations. In Taizz, the west of the city has been taken by pro-Hadi forces after heavy fighting: fighting for the east continues.
The Syrian Arab Republic occupies 185,180 km2, and consists of mountain ranges in the west and desert in the east. A steppe area covers three-quarters of the country, between the Mediterranean coast and the desert region. It borders Turkey to the north, Iraq to the east, Jordan to the southeast, Israel to the southwest, and Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Syria is divided into 14 governorates, which are divided into 65 districts and 281 subdistricts. Syria’s capital is Damascus, while Aleppo is the largest city.
Snapshot 2–8 March 2016
Malawi and Mozambique: Flooding and drought have led to the most severe food crisis Malawi has faced in a decade: 2.8 million people face acute food insecurity, including 900,000 facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes. In Mozambique, an estimated 600,000 people are in Crisis due to drought. In addition, 9,300 Mozambicans in Malawi who fled armed conflict need WASH, health and shelter assistance.
Snapshot 24 February – 1 March 2016
Swaziland: At least 300,000 people – one-third of the population – are in dire need of assistance, specifically of food and water. Poor and erratic rainfall as a result of El Niño dates back to 2014, and Swaziland has been experiencing significant reductions in crop production.
Snapshot 17–23 February 2016
DRC: More than 35,000 people have lost shelter in Zongo, Sud-Ubangi, due to forest fires that have been affecting the territory since mid-December. The fires have destroyed over 2,600 hectares of crops. Assistance delivery is hampered by bad road conditions between Gemena and Zongo.
Pakistan: Over 190 children have died and 22,000 have been hospitalised in Tharparkar district in 2016 because of drought-related waterborne and viral diseases. Tharparkar is facing severe drought for the fourth consecutive year, and access to health services is reported to be very difficult, with families travelling an average distance of 17km to reach the nearest health facility.
Syria: The military offensive in Aleppo governorate has displaced more than 40,000 people since late January, and the number of displaced is reported to be increasing. There is concern that a siege of opposition-held areas of Aleppo city is imminent. An estimated 20,000 newly displaced Syrians are stuck at the Bab al Salam crossing along the Syria–Turkey border, as Turkey has denied them entry into Turkish territory.
Snapshot 27 January – 2 February 2016
Boko Haram in Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad: 86 people were killed and 62 injured, with 15 missing after Boko Haram set fire to Dalori, near Maiduguri in Borno state. The past week also saw attacks in Chibok that left 13 dead and 30 injured. 40 civilians were reported dead after Cameroonian troops announced they were carrying out a search for BH militants in the area. In Cameroon, 52 people were killed in BH attacks in January. In Chad, two suicide bombings in Lac region left three dead and 56 wounded.
Burundi: As the security situation continues to deteriorate, the UN Security Council has expressed concern over possible mass atrocities and ethnic violence. Clashes continues in several areas of the country. Burundian refugees in DRC expressed fears over possible cross-border attacks by government forces.
Nigeria: An outbreak of Lassa viral haemorrhagic fever was announced in Nigeria on 8 January. At least 140 suspected cases and 30 confirmed cases, including 53 deaths, have been reported in 14 states. The indicated case fatality rate stands at 37.9%.
Gambia: Almost 182,000 people (9% of the population) are severely food insecure after erratic rains caused drought and crop failure. Most affected regions are Upper River, West Coast, and Northern Bank.