High risk countries and potential impacts on food security and agriculture
In view of the potential impact of the 2018/19 El Niño on food security and agriculture, high risk countries in Southern Africa, Horn of Africa, Asia and the Pacific and Latin America should be prioritized for further monitoring, analysis and early action.
From the editors
In her Foreword to this issue of FMR, the Special Rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons, Cecilia Jimenez-Damary, poses the question: Where do we go from here?
• In Q1-2018, the FAO cereal price index rose by 8.6 percent from Q1-2017, while the global food price index declined by 2 percent year-on-year.
• The real price for wheat was 22 percent above Q1-2017 levels: crops suffered dryness in the United States and cold weather in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, leaving production forecasts open to a downward revision.3 World ending stocks remain at record levels.
↗ International prices of wheat and maize rose in March for the third consecutive month and averaged more than 10 percent above their levels in December 2017. Prices were mainly supported by concerns over the impact of prolonged dryness in key-growing areas of the United States of America and Argentina, coupled with strong demand. International rice prices remained relatively stable.
Estimaciones globales sobre la inseguridad alimentaria aguda en 2017
• Alrededor de 124 millones de personas en 51 países se enfrentan a una situación de Crisis de inseguridad alimentaria o peor (equivalente o superior a la fase 3 del IPC/CH) y requieren una acción humanitaria urgente para salvar vidas, proteger los medios de vida y reducir los niveles de hambre y desnutrición aguda.
Estimations mondiales de l’insécurité alimentaire aiguë en 2017
• Environ 124 millions de personnes vivant dans 51 pays sont en situation d’insécurité alimentaire de Crise ou pire (Phase 3 ou pire de l’IPC ou du CH ou équivalent) et requièrent une action humanitaire urgente afin de sauver des vies, protéger les moyens d’existence et réduire les déficits de consommation alimentaire et la malnutrition aiguë.
Acute food insecurity global estimates in 2017
• Around 124 million people in 51 countries face Crisis food insecurity or worse (equivalent of IPC/CH Phase 3 or above). They require urgent humanitarian action to save lives, protect livelihoods, and reduce hunger and malnutrition.
↗ International prices of wheat and maize increased further in February, mainly supported by weather-related concerns and currency movements. Export price quotations of rice also continued to strengthen, although the increases were capped by subsiding global demand for Indica supplies.
↗ In East Africa, in the Sudan, prices of the main staples: sorghum, millet and wheat, continued to increase in February and reached record highs, underpinned by the removal of the wheat subsidies and the strong depreciation of the Sudanese Pound.
International prices of wheat and maize were generally firmer in January, supported by weather-related concerns and a weaker US dollar. Export price quotations of rice also strengthened mainly buoyed by renewed Asian demand.
In East Africa, in the Sudan, prices of the main staples: sorghum, millet and wheat, rose sharply for the third consecutive month in January and reached record highs, underpinned by the removal of wheat subsidies and the strong depreciation of the Sudanese Pound.
• In Q4-2017, the global food price index of FAO dropped by 2 percent compared to Q3 and remained at approximately the same level as one year ago.
In contrast, the cereal price index rose by 7.6 percent in comparison to Q4-2016.
• Although the real price2 of wheat fell by 2 percent from Q3-2017, prices are still 19 percent higher than in 2016, even though world ending stocks of wheat are at record levels.
• In Q4, the real price of maize was low at US$119/ mt with only slight variation from Q3-2017 and the previous year.
↗ International prices of wheat and maize remained relatively stable in November, reflecting good supply conditions, while export quotations of rice strengthened amid increased buying interest and currency movements.
The benchmark US wheat price declined in October mostly because of higher supply prospects while maize quotations firmed due to rain-induced harvest delays. International rice prices strengthened in October, mainly reflecting seasonally tight Japonica and fragrant supplies.
• The upward trend of FAO’s global food price index in 2017 continued in Q3, with the index 7 percent higher than in Q3-2016; this is particularly the result of higher dairy prices. The FAO cereal price index rose by 8.2 percent over the same period.
• The real price2 of wheat rose by 4 percent from Q2-2017. Although prices are significantly higher than in Q3-2016, world supplies are abundant and production forecasts for Russia and the EU are very favourable.
International prices of wheat increased in September mostly because of weather-related concerns, while maize quotations fell further on crop harvest pressure. International rice prices remained generally firm, supported by seasonally tight availabilities of fragrant rice and strong demand for higher quality Indica supplies.
171 projects in 39 countries – last year, Kolping International was able to support vocational training, agriculture, micro credit, and water projects with over 11 million euro. The donations by private donors increased significantly, amounting to nearly 7.3 million Euro – that’s an increase of over 20% compared with last year.
International prices of wheat dipped in August, after increasing in the past few months, following an upturn in production prospects in the Black Sea region which improved the 2017 global supply outlook.
Maize quotations also fell on improved weather conditions and abundant global supplies. International prices of rice were relatively stable, although price movements were mixed across the different rice market segments.
This bulletin examines trends in staple food and fuel prices, the cost of the basic food basket and consumer price indices for 69 countries in the second quarter of 2017 (April to June). The maps on pages 6–7 provide impact analysis dis-aggregated to sub-national level.
This bulletin examines trends in staple food and fuel prices, the cost of the basic food basket and consumer price indices for 70 countries in the first quarter of 2017 (January to March).1 The maps on pages 6–7 disaggregate the impact analysis to sub-national level.
This bulletin examines trends in staple food and fuel prices, the cost of the basic food basket and consumer price indices for 71 countries in the fourth quarter of 2016 (October to December).1 The maps on pages 6–7 disaggregate the impact analysis to sub-national level.