El Niño 2023-24: Asia and the Pacific

SOUTHEAST ASIA

As of early April 2024, below-average precipitation is being recorded across Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Viet Nam, and the Philippines. Ongoing monitoring of the Combined Drought Index (CDI) across the region, led by FAO and national governments, provides a more detailed understanding of the situation on a monthly basis. The Philippines became the first country in southeast Asia to reach the activation threshold in February 2024, followed by Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Lao PDR in March. Anticipatory actions are now underway across the four countries. According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, Timor-Leste faces urgent food security issues and has been battling with below-average rainfall since September 2023. From November 2023 to April 2024, some 27 per cent of the population (around 360,000 people) have been experiencing severe food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or higher), driven by El Niño-induced conditions. This is projected to continue to at least September 2024, with 2 per cent of the population (around 22,000 people) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 25 per cent (around 342,000 people) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

EAST ASIA

Mongolia has seen the highest snowfall recorded in the last 49 years, with the 2023/24 dzud at its peak affecting 90 per cent of the territory of Mongolia, killing more than 5.9 million livestock (over 9 per cent of all livestock nationwide) as of 28 March. This is well below the 6 per cent threshold to classify a dzud emergency in the country. Livestock deaths are expected to continue to rise in the coming weeks, potentially driving this number upward.

THE PACIFIC REGION

Cyclone season is underway in the South Pacific and will be coming to a close at the end of April 2024. However, the season is expected to extend until May 2024 due to current El Niño conditions, according to the Fiji Meteorological Services, which has urged partners to remain on high alert. To address this, the joint UN and Government of Anticipatory Action Framework for Tropical Cyclones will continue to be in effect during this period, providing support for escalated mitigation measures in the event of a cyclone affecting Fiji. Dry conditions in parts of the Northern Pacific have led to severe water shortages on some islands in the Federated States of Micronesia and Marshall Islands. It comes as the US Drought Monitor has upgraded conditions on Wotje in the Marshall Islands and on Yap in the Federated States of Micronesia from severe to extreme. Such conditions are expected to continue over the coming three months. (OCHA, 5 Apr 2024)