Following poor 2023/24 harvests driven mainly by a historic dry spell, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes are prevalent across all typical deficit-producing areas in the south, east, west, and extreme north as well as some typical surplus-producing areas in the north. Own-produced food stocks have already been exhausted for most households, forcing atypically early market reliance even as most households are constrained by high food prices and below-normal income. The few remaining areas with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes – mainly in the Mashonaland Provinces – are expected to soon transition to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as an increasing proportion of households in these areas experience food consumption gaps and start engaging in coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3). From September throughout the projection period (to January 2025), all areas in the country are expected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
In addition to the loss of food crops and reduced/no income from food crop sales, cash crop sales have been significantly below normal this season. At the close of the cotton marketing season at the beginning of August, only 13,000 MT of the cash crop were reportedly delivered – well below the initial estimate of 42,000 MT. In comparison, last year 82,000 MT were sold. The 2024 tobacco marketing season also closed in the third week of August, with some 230 million kg of tobacco having been sold, about 22 percent lower than the same time last year. Despite this year’s poor production, tobacco farmers have begun preparing to take advantage of the forecasted favorable 2024/25 rainfall and agricultural season, doing everything needed to prioritize the purchase of inputs. Tobacco seed sales have reportedly increased by 20 percent as of mid-August compared to the same time last year, and tobacco planted area is anticipated to exceed the record 164,000 hectares achieved in 2019.
Increasing seasonal temperatures are worsening the water situation across most typical low rainfall areas, such as Matabeleland North and South, Masvingo, Midlands and parts of Manicaland Provinces, and the extreme northern parts of the Mashonaland Provinces, continuing to negatively impact access to water for domestic, livestock and other livelihood uses. In these areas, with few households able to produce or afford to buy supplementary livestock feeds, well below average pasture conditions are forcing continued distressed sales of livestock, especially cattle, at significantly lower than normal prices – less than half the typical prices in the worst-affected areas. In a few communities, some households are moving their cattle to better grazing areas, which are significantly fewer and more distant than normal this year.
Farmers in most areas are expected to face higher than usual challenges in preparing for the 2024/25 agricultural season. Below-normal availability and access to draught power are anticipated due to poor animal body conditions, especially in the typical low-rainfall areas; this also spells an expected loss of seasonal income for households that provide draught power services to others. Most farmers are expected to have challenges accessing crop inputs on the market due to low income and high prices as own-produced retained seeds will not be available due to this year’s poor harvests. The government has reportedly started prepositioning crop inputs at the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) depots ahead of the anticipated start of distributions in September.
