Attachments
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes increase as own-produced stocks deplete atypically early
Key Messages
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An increasing proportion of households in deficit-producing areas are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as the 2022/23 lean season sets in earlier than normal due to below-average 2021/22 harvests and macroeconomic instability. Meanwhile, near-average 2021/22 harvests and above-average 2020/21 carryover stocks in some surplus-producing areas will continue to drive Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will prevail through January 2023 in those surplus-producing areas negatively impacted by the poor progression of the 2021/22 rainfall season and in urban areas due to high prices and poor access to basic commodities.
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Staple grain availability at both household and market levels is lower than usual with reliance on maize meal purchases higher than normal for this time of the year. Seasonal grain deliveries to, and stocks at, the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) are also low, with private sector imports reportedly now beginning to arrive. The government has indicated it will not import grain this marketing season, and will rely on domestic reserves for commercial and humanitarian needs.
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The macroeconomic situation remains volatile despite some recent stabilization in parallel market foreign currency exchange rates. Official (auction and interbank) exchange rates continue to increase, recording 10 and 6 percent increases between July and August, respectively. Though fuel prices have reduced somewhat, prices of most goods and services continue to increase in both USD and ZWL terms driven by both international and domestic factors. As a result, the cost of living continues to increase and additional households are falling below the poverty lines.
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Most typical livelihoods are constrained and expected to remain so throughout the outlook period. Poor households are expected to cope by employing consumption coping strategies and by either intensifying existing livelihood strategies or extending to other measures or activities such as petty trading, informal mining, and barter. One of the key activities, casual labor, is expected to be below normal until at least the beginning of the next agricultural season. Though forecasted above-average rainfall will likely have positive effects on some livelihood activities such as casual labor, cropping, and livestock conditions, there remains a risk of negative impacts as well from excess moisture and flooding.