Zimbabwe: El Niño Anticipatory Action Plan, Oct 2023 - Mar 2024 (Issued November 2023)

Anticipatory Action Plan At a Glance

PEOPLE TARGETED 505.6K
REQUIREMENTS 28.7M
SECTORS 6
DISTRICTS TARGETED 21

Part 1: Context Overview

Zimbabwe has, over the years, grappled with the repercussions of the climate crisis, which have led to erratic rainfall patterns characterized by either severe floods or prolonged periods of drought. The nation has experienced a concerning trend of numerous regions reporting rainfall levels below the usual during what should be "normal" years. The upcoming El Niño event forecasted for 2023-2024, which is associated with drier-than-average rainfall, is poised to exacerbate this predicament. It is expected to intensify aridity, significantly impacting food and animal production across many areas, including those typically classified as "dry regions."

The El Niño phenomenon of 2015-2016 stands as a stark example of the devastating consequences. During this period, the country endured extreme dry spells and significantly reduced rainfall, severely affecting agricultural output and leading to adverse food and nutritional shortages. Zimbabwe received only 75 per cent of its typical annual rainfall. Meteorological reports indicate that the western and southern parts of the country, often considered the "dry areas," received less than 100mm of rainfall, a stark contrast to the normal range of 450-650mm. The late onset of the rainy season and the insufficient precipitation had detrimental effects on agriculture, contributing to food insecurity among the population.

During this period, the country identified 2.8 million people as being at risk of food insecurity. Global Acute Malnutrition rates soared to 5.7 per cent, marking the highest figure recorded in 15 years. Consequently, a state of drought disaster was declared on February 4, 2016, prompting a humanitarian appeal for $1.5 billion to address urgent needs in food, nutrition, agriculture, water, education, and health sectors. The consequences extended beyond these sectors, affecting urban areas as well. Cities, municipalities, and urban settlements had to endure prolonged water rationing schedules due to reduced water levels. Additionally, electricity generation at the country's hydroelectric power plants was significantly hampered. The ripple effects of the El Niño-induced drought permeated various sectors of the economy, with adverse impacts on manufacturing and energy industries. Nonetheless, the most severely affected sectors remained food and nutrition, agriculture, water, education, health, and wildlife.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed a strong El Niño event occurring between October 2023 and March 2024. This event is expected to have adverse effects on rainfall from October 2023 to March 2024, potentially leading to drought conditions in Zimbabwe. Anticipated outcomes include a delayed onset of rainfall and prolonged dry spells, which could significantly impact food production and disrupt the food supply chain. Regions with typically lower precipitation levels are particularly susceptible to experiencing drought, which may result in widespread crop loss, livestock fatalities, increased disease incidence, crop pests, and challenges related to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). These challenges, in turn, can have cascading negative effects on nutrition.

According to the available forecasts from the Meteorological Services Department (MSD), the confirmed El Niño episode is expected to be most strongly felt in the southern parts of the country, spanning from west to east. These areas, which also experienced high levels of food insecurity during the 2015/16 El Niño episode, include Matabeleland North, South, Midlands, Masvingo, and Manicaland. However, there were also pockets of food insecurity in the Northwest and Northeast regions.