Situation Update
The climate and food security crisis remains unabated across Southern Africa, with more than 26 million people food insecure in countries most affected by the drought, including 1.5 million in emergency levels - double compared to last year3. Food insecurity is expected to worsen in the coming months, with some relief anticipated around March/April as the maize harvest begins.
While the El Niño phenomena has officially ended, its lasting impact persists through widespread droughts, failed harvests, livestock losses, and worsening malnutrition, water, sanitation, and health conditions. In some areas, El Niño has also triggered devastating floods, intensifying the impact on affected communities, leading to a prolonged hunger crisis.
To date, five Southern African countries - Lesotho, Malawi,
Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe - have declared national disasters. Angola and Mozambique are also experiencing severe food insecurity impacts.
The region, typically self-sufficient in maize, is expected to face a sharp shortfall, with current production unable to meet the demand. Countries like Zambia and Zimbabwe have seen close to 50 and 72 percent production declines respectively from the 5-year average. Malawi and Mozambique, which usually maintain self-sufficiency, are experiencing production declines close to 23 and 30 percent respectively, when compared to the 5-year average. An estimated 5 million metric tons of imported maize will be necessary to meet the demand. Fortunately, current estimates suggest that international imports will adequately address the regional shortfall, albeit at higher prices than normal.
Soaring food prices and inflation compound the crisis, with Malawi’s maize prices 160 percent above the 5-year average and year-on-year inflation remaining elevated across countries such as Malawi, Angola, DRC, and Zambia, impacting household purchasing power and overall food access.
In addition to harvest failures, El Niño has resulted in loss of livestock. Over 9,000 drought-related cattle deaths have been reported across Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe between October 2023 and February 2024, leading to significant financial losses for families and increasing poverty.
Water, sanitation, and health (WASH) conditions are deteriorating. Water scarcity is one factor that raises significant protection concerns as women, girls and children are forced to travel greater distances in search of water, increasing their vulnerability to gender-based violence.
Water shortages are severely impacting hydroelectric power, leading to daily power cuts in countries like Zambia and Zimbabwe, increasing the strain on local economies.
The situation is worsened by ongoing public health challenges, including Mpox outbreaks. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has reported record numbers, with approximately 38,000 suspected cases and 1,000 possible related deaths as of November 2024. Cases have also been reported in the Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
Southern Africa remains at risk of further deterioration in malnutrition levels due to the declining quality of diet and the adoption of severe coping strategies, such as skipping meals and shifting to lower-quality and less nutritious diets.
Nutrition assessments in drought-affected areas highlight concerning malnutrition rates, with pockets of severe cases in Namibia, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
In addition to the drought experienced across Southern Africa, there has also been a dramatic increase in the number of people facing acute food insecurity in DRC Tanganyika province, due to El Niño-induced flooding and heavy rainfall across Eastern Africa. Based on the latest analysis, up to 40 percent of the total population in Tanganyika is now facing crisis levels of acute food insecurity. Due to a lack of resources and limited WFP operational presence, the response to flood-affected populations is limited. Going forward, WFP is planning to support the Department of Civil Protection on preparedness
and anticipatory action by reinforcing their capacity in early warning systems, coordination mechanisms and simulation exercises for better preparedness in response to shocks.
The DRC hosts the world’s second-largest displaced population, 6.9 million people, mainly in the eastern
provinces of DRC. While conflict is the primary driver, climate shocks are increasingly displacing people, severely impacting livelihoods and food security, and posing major challenges for WFP to continue to meet both new and ongoing needs.
While the El Niño phenomenon has ended and the region is currently in a neutral phase, there is a 60 percent chance of La Niña phenomenon to emerge during November-March 2025. This is likely to bring normal to above-normal rainfall in parts of the region, raising the risk of flooding, storms, and tropical cyclones. While wetter than average conditions present an opportunity for agricultural recovery, the
potential risk associated with floods, storms and cyclones, could see further damage to crops and loss of livestock.