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WFP Regional Bureau for Southern Africa: El Niño Situation Report #2, 16 September 2024 (reporting period: August 2024)

Attachments

Highlights

• Close to 27 million people are food insecure and require immediate food assistance in the seven Southern African countries where the UN World Food Programme (WFP) is responding to communities affected by the El Niño-induced drought (Angola, Lesotho, Namibia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe). This is a time when the region endures economic downturn, high food prices, and disease outbreaks.

• WFP is coordinating its response actions with the Southern African Development Community (SADC), national governments and a wide range of partners to reach the most affected communities with the limited resources available, to avert loss of life and livelihoods.

• WFP providesfood, cash and vouchers, targeted supplementary feeding, emergency school feeding, as well as early recovery and livelihood restoration support. In addition, WFP is supporting governments in food transport and food procurement for their response.

WFP requires USD 369 million to provide food and cash assistance to over 6.5 million people across Southern Africa up to March 2025

Situation Update

A historic El Niño-induced drought and above-average temperatures in early 2024 led to crop harvests across the region. When compared to the previous year, maize production fell by 20 percent in South Africa, 54 percent in Zambia, and 72 percent in Zimbabwe. South Africa’s diminished surplus is still sufficient to meet the import needs of Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Eswatini. Tanzania’s above-average surplus is expected to mitigate partially regional supply deficits. However, at least an additional three million metric tons of imported maize is necessary to meet the regional demand.

As of date, close to 27 million people across Southern Africa are food insecure as the impact of the El Niño-induced drought deepens. Affected communities have depleted their meagre food reserves with months remaining before the next opportunity for harvest in April 2025. In addition to harvest failures, El Niño has brought about loss of livestock and deteriorating malnutrition, water, sanitation, and health (WASH) conditions. Thus far, national drought disasters have been declared in five countries in the region: Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Angola and Mozambique are also severely affected, with approximately 1.8 million people in Angola and 3.3 million people in Mozambique estimated to be food insecure.

The situation in Mozambique is exacerbated by conflict in the north. The El Niño-induced drought also undermined hydroelectric power generation, on which both Zambia and Zimbabwe are more than 80 percent reliant. Below-normal availability and access to cattle generated power is expected due to generally dry conditions, especially in the typical low rainfall areas; this also spells an expected loss of seasonal income for households that provide animal farming services to others.

As these countries grapple with an earlier than-usual lean season, the situation is further worsened by high food prices, significant economic challenges, as well as cholera and Mpox outbreaks. Southern Africa remains at risk of a further deterioration in malnutrition levels due to the declining quality of diet and the adoption of extreme coping strategies, such as skipping meals and shifting to lower quality and less nutritious diets.

The hunger crisis is forcing families to make survival decisions, putting children and women at heightened protection risks. Looking ahead to the next planting season (which starts in November/December), many smallholder farmers are expected to have challenges accessing crop inputs on the market due to low income and high prices as own-produced retained seeds will not be available due to this year’s poor harvests