Southern Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook Update: January 9, 2017

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 10 Jan 2017 View Original

This report provides a summary of changes to regional maize availability estimates and markets in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (countries monitored by FEWS NET in southern Africa) as well as South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, and Swaziland. It updates FEWS NET’s Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook Report published in August 2016.

Key Messages

  • Based on updated 2015/16 production, opening stock, consumption, and strategic reserve figures, the regional maize balance for the  2016/17 marketing year is now estimated to be a deficit of just over 5 million MT. On average, the region typically has an aggregate maize surplus of nearly 3,000,000 MT, making this year’s shortage a significant anomaly. Zimbabwe’s uncovered maize deficit remains the largest in the region, followed by Malawi and Mozambique.  
  • With the persistence of the maize export ban in Zambia, the main source of imports for maize deficit region’s in the country will remain international imports, including those supplies re-exported from South Africa.  Maize supplies are expected to be constrained through the lean season and prices will remain well above average across the region, especially in Malawi and Mozambique. 
  • Limited seed availability coupled with persistently low vegetative status following last year’s drought may constrain regional production for another year and should be monitored closely.