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The potential for digital adaptation in agriculture in the Zambezi River Basin countries: Regional Assessment Report

Attachments

Greenwell Matchaya, Mohamed Aheeyar, Girma Ebrahim, Simon Langan, William Rex, Oluyede Clifford Ajayi, Olukemi Dolly Afun-Ogidan, Fleur Wouterse, Bhekiwe Fakudze, Winnie Kasoma-Pele, Lisa-Maria Rebelo, Inga Jacobs-Mata and Giriraj Amarnath

Executive summary

The objectives of this assessment were to study the prevalent and most challenging climate risks that smallholder farmers and small businesses face in the Zambezi River Basin countries, understand the role of digital technology in climate adaptation, and thereby propose interventions to accelerate and scale up the use of digital technology in climate adaptation.

To reach these objectives, a two-step methodology was followed, consisting of a literature review and secondary data analysis on the one hand and stakeholder consultations on the other. These processes yielded data and information that shed light on key climate risks, current adaptation strategies, digital technologies, constraints for digital adaptation, and interventions that may be put in place to enhance adaptation. The major findings are highlighted below:

The nature and extent of climate risks in the Zambezi basin countries vary across countries, but they are increasing in severity over time, calling for context-specific solutions

Drought, dry spells, rising temperatures, floods, and changing seasons are becoming more frequent, and the future will be characterized by an increase in climate risks across the Zambezi River Basin countries. The levels of significance for each of these risks vary by country. Floods, for example, are more frequent and deadly in Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, while dry spells, rising temperatures, and droughts are more frequent in Namibia and Botswana.

In all the Zambezi riparian countries, significant efforts, including adaptation initiatives and legislative reforms, are underway to attempt to build basin resilience to climate change.

The extent and use of digital technologies in climate adaptation are in their infancy but vary across countries and are increasing

Climate adaptation through digital technology is not prevalent; however, in each country there are some developments in this area that can be considered steps toward better climate adaptation using digital technology.

The most common digital adaptation technologies vary in popularity and extent of usage from one country to another, but weather-indexed crop insurance is introduced in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe and is mentioned in Tanzania and Angola as well. The use of the Internet of Things (IoT) to improve farm management is emerging in Botswana, Namibia, and Angola through specific initiatives often sponsored by outside agencies.

Digital technologies are also being used across various stages of the value chains, including production, processing and marketing, where they improve efficiency. The most frequently used digital technologies with the potential for climate adaptation include radios, satellite televisions, mobile phones, drones, computers, mobile applications and data-enabled insurance services.

While digital technologies are useful, their adoption and scaling are replete with challenges and constraints

The major constraints that undermine the adoption and use of digital technologies across the Zambezi River Basin countries are related to availability, access, affordability, gender and inclusivity during technology design, enabling environment, cultural and family norms, and poor user skills.

Low skills/literacy, cyber-safety concerns and poor requisite infrastructure constrain adoption and scaling

Some countries have low ICT skills which undermines the adoption and usage of digital technology. For example, Malawi and Mozambique lag behind the rest of the countries in adult literacy levels with considerable gender gaps in internet adoption. Energy is important for the operationalization of digital technology, but 80 percent of the rural population is generally lacking electricity in most Zambezi River Basin countries. Even where rural electricity availability is relatively good in the region, access to electricity is less than 27 percent, and as low as 4 percent in Malawi and 4.9 percent in Mozambique.

Meanwhile, cybercrime industry is booming in the Zambezi River Basin countries, with the potential to undermine trust in digital solutions. For example, some stakeholders in Malawi, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Mozambique voice concerns regarding mobile money applications and internet banking, which support both farm and non-farm transactions. In Zimbabwe, there is a different concern of the potential of state departments leveraging national security laws to monitor private communications.

Current low levels of digital penetration and the costs of mobile data reduce the adoption of data-enabled technologies

The current levels of digital penetration are low. Mobile infrastructure needs strengthening as the current state of the infrastructure leaves out significant portions of the rural population. Network signals are significantly poor in rural areas in all the Zambezi River Basin countries and where mobile networks are available, high cost of data is a barrier to internet usage. Malawi and Zimbabwe record the highest data costs, compared to the others.

Key development stakeholders who fund agriculture, such as development partners, fund remitters in the diaspora or urban centres within a country, banks, and others, could play a leading role in addressing the high cost of technology and speeding up technology adoption.

Furthermore, information generation is often undermined by poor or weak early warning systems which require significant investments in automatic weather stations, other equipment, and human capital skills. Weak coordination and information sharing mechanisms are worsening the situation across the Zambezi River Basin countries and yet many of the climate issues of interest are transboundary in nature, such that addressing them requires international collaboration. For example, water accounting across the basin and building the capacity of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) climate services center for sustainability relies on international cooperation.

Poor macroeconomic, policy, and regulatory environments constrain adoption by undermining the availability of technology and business predictability

Macroeconomic conditions, particularly inflation and lack of foreign exchange, also undermine growth prospects of digital technology use in adaptation, as many of these technologies need to be imported. Therefore, not surprisingly, most digital tools are simply unavailable or too expensive, especially for women. The lack of national policies or the legal framework to support digital innovation expansion is undermining the availability and adoption of these technologies. For example, liberal use of drones requires legislation that protects others from abuse. In some cases, digital technology concepts are absent in national climate adaptation strategies blocking resource availability for digital technology development.

Cultural factors increase the gender gap in technology adoption and use

Reducing gender gaps in using phones or other technologies is not only about providing phones to women. Cultural factors, including family consent, can negatively influence women's access to and use of mobile internet, particularly where social media engagement is stigmatized. Such sentiments were echoed during consultative meetings in Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi. In these cases, men who exert control over household resources can discourage internet use by women.

While the gender gap is a general issue, there are cross-country and within-country variations on specific issues. For example, the gender gap in literacy is highest in Angola (27%), Mozambique (22.3%) and Malawi (14.6%). However, the mobile ownership gender gap data suggests that this is the worst in Mozambique. There are also variations in the economic status of women across and within countries. The complex intersectionality of these factors (including location, income status, and literacy) implies that there are many unique groups of women, therefore no one-sizefits-all solution can be prescribed for women. Rather, solutions must be tailor-made to specific audiences. An ultra-poor, illiterate rural female farmer is likely going to need different interventions from a rich, literate peri-urban farmer for purposes of increasing technology use in climate adaptation. While the former may require only awareness to adopt technology use, the latter may need access to finance/low-cost production, technology that does not require reading, translation from a foreign language, and liberation from negative cultural strangleholds.

Lead farmers and extension services can help spur technology adoption among women through innovative extension services, including digitization and mobilizing lead farmers for climate adaptation through technology adoption. Farmers find it easy and perhaps convenient to learn from fellow farmers on matters of technology adoption and roll-out rather than learn from prepacked extension messages that often omit context specific information that is key for the success of technology use. Zimbabwe is capitalizing on this through the Pfumvudza program, but challenges remain.