1 . CONTEXT
The situation in Zimbabwe has shifted from an acute emergency to a low-intensity crisis fuelled by political instability and economic mismanagements. However the situation remains fragile due to the political context and the basic social services constraint capacities. Available data ranks Zimbabwe's Human Development Index (HDI) in 2010 as being in between 157th and 158th place. This represents a loss of more than 40 places since 1990. The population is estimated to be between 12-13 million, though much reduced (possibly by more than 3 million) due to migration, mainly to South Africa. Zimbabwe has a GNA Vulnerability Index of 3, and a Crisis Index of 3. The entire population has been affected by the crisis, which has stemmed from serious political violence during all election processes over the past 10 years coupled with the adverse effects of the land reform process. After the most recent disputed elections in 2008, a Government of National Unity (GNU) (ZANU PF, MDC-T (Tsvangirai) and MDC-M (Mutambara, since January 2011 led by W. Ncube) was formed in February 2009. Some improvements have been noted in the socio-economic situation, thanks to dollarization and liberalization, but they have not been fully matched by progress on the political front. Though no date has yet been set for the next elections, it is widely assumed that they will take place sometime in 2012. Pre and post electoral violence could be expected as it was systematically the case during election sin the past decade.