Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Mixed weather conditions at the start of the 2024/25 cropping season
- Drought severely affected 2024 cereal production
- Low domestic harvest pushes up import needs
- Food prices rise abruptly in response to currency devaluation
- Widespread acute food insecurity
Mixed weather conditions at the start of the 2024/25 cropping season
Planting of the summer 2025 cereal crops is underway and is expected to conclude in January. Remote sensing analysis indicates that the total rainfall amount for November, which typically marks the start of the planting season, was near normal across most of the country, but unevenly distributed over time. However, a severe drought earlier in the year, which sharply reduced the 2024 cereal harvest, has kept soil moisture levels still unusually low, particularly in the northeastern provinces, which are key agricultural production zones. These dry soil conditions may hinder and delay planting operations, especially with rainfall amounts in early December below average and weather forecasts pointing to a high probability of below-average rainfall amounts and higher-than-average temperatures for the rest of the month. From January onwards, weather forecasts suggest a likely return to average rainfall amounts.
The government continues to support access to agricultural inputs for the 2024/25 cropping season, with an estimated 3.5 million households targeted to receive inputs through a subsidy programme.
Drought severely affected 2024 cereal production
An intense and widespread drought in early 2024, with particularly harsh conditions in February and March, affected the 2024 total cereal production which is estimated at about 1.3 million tonnes, almost 40 percent lower than the five-year average. The maize crop was particularly affected, and production is estimated at 635 000 tonnes, over 60 percent below the average, as rainfall deficits occurred during critical vegetative and flowering stages. Consequently, maize yields dropped to below-average levels and only about half of the maize planted area was harvested, with many crops written off.
Harvesting of the 2024 winter wheat crop concluded November and the output is estimated at an above-average level of 540,000 tonnes as weather conditions were generally favourable during the winter cropping period and most of the crop was produced under irrigation.
Livestock body conditions are reportedly poor overall, reflecting the low availability and quality of pasture, as well as reduced water resources. These conditions have reportedly caused increased rates of livestock losses.
Low domestic harvest pushes up import needs
The low 2024 cereal harvest has driven up import needs for the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) to an estimated 1.3 million tonnes, nearly double the five-year average. This amount is expected to cover both consumption needs in 2024/25 and help to replenish stocks. Maize constitutes the bulk of this amount and between April and October 2024 about 850 000 tonnes had been imported, mostly from South Africa. Wheat imports are expected at an average level and are being sourced mostly from European countries and South Africa.
Food prices rise abruptly in response to currency devaluation
Persistent currency weakness has been a primary driver of steep price increases over the past two years. In October 2024, food prices, denominated in local currency, spiked abruptly, with the annual food inflation rate estimated at 50 percent. The increase was largely driven by a 40 percent devaluation of the national currency in September. A secondary factor contributing to the rise in food prices is the tight national cereal supply, caused by the impact of the drought. A likely third contributor is the rising prices in South Africa, the key supplier of cereals to Zimbabwe, where wholesale white maize prices reached consecutive record highs in 2024. These elevated prices in South Africa are expected to filter through to the domestic market, particularly given the large volumes of maize imported in 2024.
Widespread acute food insecurity
According to FEWSNET analysis, up to 5 million people are expected to face IPC Phase 3 levels of acute food insecurity from December 2024 until at least March 2025. This figure is well above the 3.5 million acutely food insecure people estimated in 2023/24 during the same months.
The widespread prevalence of acute food insecurity is primarily driven by two factors. The first is the drought's impact on agricultural production, which has reduced rural households' food supply, as well as incomes mainly due to lower crop sales and fewer farm-labour opportunities. The second factor is the high and rising food prices, which, combined with reduced incomes, have eroded households' purchasing power and constrained their ability to access food. Almost half of a poor households’ income is used to purchase food. These factors are further compounded by the national macroeconomic instability, which is limiting income-generating activities for households. This is particularly problematic during periods of agricultural production shocks, when alternative income sources are essential to help households maintain income levels.