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GDO Analytical Report: Drought in Southern Africa – August 2019

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Executive summary – update to August 2019

This document builds on the previous reports published in January 1 and March 2 2019, please refer to them for more insight on the precipitation pattern that led to the drought and earlier reported impacts.

  • Since March 2019, the drought persisted or worsened almost everywhere, while entering the dry season around May.

  • With August marking the peak of the dry season, the exposed population must endure a dire situation for at least another couple of months before rainfall, while food security will remain in jeopardy until at least the next harvest, several months ahead. Food security concerns are widespread to all countries involved, with some open crisis where drought combined with other issues, such as floods and economic downturns (e.g. Zimbabwe, Mozambique).

  • Due to the strong seasonality, relevant precipitation are not expected anywhere before late September or October. Indeed, the rainfall outlook matches with the long-term averages, with the exception of some coastal regions of Namibia and South Africa, forecast as drier than usual.