HIGHLIGHTS(1)
- Informal cross-border trade in maize continues after the ban on maize export, but at much reduced levels.
- Zambia has net inflow of informal maize in 2005/06 marketing season, reversing net out flow in previous season.
- Relative scarcity and price differences across Zambia's borders trigger informal outflow of maize into DRC and inflow from Tanzania.
- Zambia is the largest informal exporter of rice and beans; the volume of rice traded increased relative to maize and beans since the start of 2005/06 market season.
OVERALL SUMMARY OF TRADE
The WFP/FEWS NET project to monitor informal cross-border food trade in the southern Africa region was initiated in July 2004. Through this initiative, several borders between Zambia and neighbouring countries - the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania, Malawi, Zimbabwe and Mozambique - are being monitored (see Annex 2). The commodities currently monitored are maize, beans and rice. The findings over the past year reveal that cross-border informal trade in these commodities can be significant, which has important implications for Zambia's food security and food balance sheet.(2)
Figure 1a shows recorded quantities of informally exported maize, rice and beans since the beginning of the project. The changes in their relative quantities during this period are depicted in 1b. The volumes of maize (859 MT), beans (844 MT) and rice (758 MT) exported to neighbouring countries were comparable at the start of monitoring in July 2004. Exports of maize rose steadily and remained high to the end of the 2004/05 marketing year (i.e. April 2005), which could be explained by the fact that the marketing season was preceded by surplus production in the 2003/04 production season. Since the beginning of the current marketing season in May 2005, export of maize fell steeply. The volume of rice and beans were both lower than maize, but alternated in second position to the end of the 2004/05 marketing season. However, since the start of the 2005/06 marketing season, rice has become the dominant export followed by beans, effectively displacing maize to third position. The share of maize in total informal export was 21% in October 2005, which was 10% of peak maize export of January 2005.
The informal maize exports were primarily to Zimbabwe and DRC, which accounted for at least 90%; the remaining volume was exported to Malawi and Tanzania. From July 2004 to the end of the marketing season in April 2005, recorded exports to Zimbabwe and DRC had reached 13,190 MT and 10,211 MT respectively. Similarly, the main market for informal exports of both beans and rice was the DRC. Export of these commodities to other countries was negligible.
Between March and April 2005 maize exports to Zimbabwe and DRC fell by 94% and 8%, respectively. The drop was steep in subsequent months for DRC (drop of 83% between April and May). This followed Government of Zambian’s ban of maize export announced in March 2005. The decline also coincided with the maize harvest period, and appears to reflect the reduced harvest in 2004/05 production season. The fall in recorded informal maize export significantly increased the relative share of both rice and beans. There were also large fluctuations in the volume of informal maize exports compared with rice and beans. Much of the rice traded comes from East Asia and there was therefore relative stability of supply compared with maize (and to lesser degree beans) that that is locally produced and was affected by the partial drought.
Footnotes
(1) This is the first bi-monthly report dedicated to Zambia to complement the regional monthly report.
(2) In the 2004/05 marketing season Zambia was the second largest informal exporter of maize after Mozambique.
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