Minimal acute food insecurity outcomes expected to continue
Acute food insecurity remains Minimal (IPC Phase 1) following the above-average harvest this year, resulting in increased food availability for farming households and improved food access for households that dependent on market purchases. Poorer households will be accessing additional food or cash when hired for labor by better-off households during the peak period (Oct-Dec) for agricultural labor demand for the 2017/18 production season. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) area outcomes are likely to continue throughout the entire outlook period.
Since the arrival of harvest supplies on the market in June 2017, market activity has been lower than normal. Prices are at an all-time low due to the large harvest, large carryover stocks from the previous season, and limited regional markets for large traders. Maize prices are expected to remain below average and will peak at much lower levels than typical during the February and March 2018 period.
Even in the absence of the export ban, formal maize export volumes this season are much lower than in previous years. In contrast, informal exports to the Democratic Republic of the Congo are normal and demand for maize meal is higher than demand for grain due to the reduced meal prices. High demand from Tanzanian traders in the northern parts of the country has increased the flow of maize to deficit areas in the East Africa region.