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Zambia

ACAPS Thematic Report - Zambia: Update on the impact of drought (16 January 2025)

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CRISIS IMPACT OVERVIEW

On 29 February 2024, the Zambian Government declared a state of disaster in response to an El Niño-induced drought during the 2023–2024 agricultural season. The drought significantly affected agriculture and electricity production, heightening food insecurity and affecting livelihoods in 84 out of 116 districts (Govt. of Zambia 16/04/2024; AJ 29/02/2024; AP 29/02/2024; BBC 02/10/2024). The hardest-hit areas include Central, Eastern, Southern, and Western provinces, which cumulatively account for over 58% of Zambia’s annual maize production over the past f ive years (OCHA 07/05/2024). Farmers are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate-related hazards, including drought, since approximately 90% of cultivation in Zambia uses rain-fed agriculture – a farming practice that relies entirely on natural rainfall to meet crops’ water needs (IWMI 01/10/2024; Beyer et al. 17/12/2015).

The severe crop failure during the 2023–2024 agricultural season has significantly affected farmers, leaving many struggling to sustain their livelihoods after the losses. Maize is the most widely cultivated crop in Zambia, occupying over 65% of the country’s agricultural land. It serves as both a major food source for the population and a significant cash crop for the country (GYGA Accessed 07/01/2025). The crop has experienced widespread failure, leading to reduced production during the 2023–2024 agricultural season and affecting around 43% of the total cultivated hectares. Grain production has declined by around 53% compared to the previous season, making the 2023–2024 agricultural season output the lowest in five years (OCHA 16/12/2024).

The drought has significantly affected Lake Kariba, the largest man-made lake in the world by volume, leading to lower water levels (Africanews 13/10/2024; BBC 02/10/2024). By 11 December 2024, the lake’s water volume had decreased from 11.83% of its normal capacity to 2.89% over the year, a reduction of approximately 75% (Zambezira accessed 11/012/2024 ; IWMI 01/10/2024). This has decreased electricity production through the lake’s dam, resulting in up to 21 hours per day of load shedding – the deliberate temporary shutdown of electric power supply to prevent a complete system failure in a part (or parts) of a power-distribution system (Elum Energy 07/09/2023). Load shedding affects over 80% of Zambians, who rely on hydroelectric power for electricity (IWMI 01/10/2024; AP 11/10/2024). The drought has also affected businesses, as the country’s GDP growth projection for 2024 has been downgraded from an earlier estimate of 4.7% to 2.3% because of the adverse impact of power shortages on copper production, Zambia’s key export. This disruption has affected livelihoods and overall economic activity (IMF 26/06/2024; IWMI 01/10/2024; OEC accessed 15/10/2024).

Water and food scarcity has led to the displacement of households within and outside the country, mainly to Namibia. The search for employment and better livelihoods motivates these movements, especially from rural to urban areas in Southern and Western provinces. There remains a lack of precise data on the scale and frequency of these displacements (IOM 18/09/2024; Govt. of Zambia 13/01/2025; OCHA 16/12/2024).

The drought in Zambia has severely worsened food insecurity and malnutrition, with 5.8 million people (33% of the population) expected to face high food insecurity from October 2024 to March 2025, including 236,000 people at Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels. Year-onyear food inflation was recorded at 18.2% because of poor harvests and high staple prices (IPC 02/10/2024; ZamStats accessed 10/12/2024; IWMI 21/11/2024). Malnutrition has also surged, with a global acute malnutrition rate of 25.2% among screened children and 7.2% of those children treated for severe acute malnutrition (SAM). SAM admissions increased by 69% in 2024 from the previous year, further straining affected households (UNICEF 15/10/2024 and 19/11/2024).