Millions of Yemenis are expected to experience food consumption deficits through at least May 2025 as macroeconomic shocks stemming from the country’s years-long conflict continue to severely restrict households’ financial access to food. In areas controlled by the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG), above-average food prices and inadequate income – including irregular government salary payments – are exerting pressure on household purchasing power, resulting in widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In several IRG-controlled areas, humanitarian food assistance is most likely preventing more severe acute food insecurity, leading to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes. Meanwhile, some governorates under the control of the Sana'a-based authorities (SBA) continue to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Although price controls remain in place and these areas will receive additional humanitarian food assistance in early 2025, the anticipated scale of coverage is not high enough to prevent Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes given the scarcity of other household food and income sources. Recent airstrikes on essential port infrastructure have also raised the risk of fuel and food shortages and a resurgent fuel black market, particularly if operational capacity remains significantly limited in the medium- to long-term and if mitigation strategies are not employed.
On December 19, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) carried out airstrikes on critical port facilities in areas controlled by the SBA, destroying fuel tanks; damaging eight marine tugboats essential for shipping operations at the ports of Al Hudaydah, As Saleef, and the Ras Issa oil facilities in Al Hudaydah Governorate; and damaging two power plants in Sana’a City, in addition to killing nine individuals and injuring others. On December 26, a second round of IDF airstrikes damaged Sana’a International Airport; power stations in Haziz, south of Sana’a, and Ras al-Khatib; and the Al Hudaydah port, Ras Issa oil port, and As Salif seaport in Al Hudaydah Governorate. The latest attack represents the fourth incident targeting critical SBA infrastructure in less than six months, signaling an escalation of conflict between the SBA forces and the IDF and US-led coalition forces. This escalation, coupled with recent SBA attacks on IRG positions along the main frontlines of Taiz, Al Dhale’e, and Lahj governorates, have undermined UN mediation efforts to reach a political solution to the conflict, which is heightening concerns about further escalation and the possibility of increased internal displacement.
Key informants indicate there are at least two months of cereal and fuel inventories currently available at the ports, which are expected to meet demand in the immediate term. However, local news reports indicate that the attacks have diminished the operational capacity at the affected ports to receive new supplies by 70 percent, and the full extent of the damage – including longer-term impacts on supply and prices – are still being measured. Given the SBA’s strong preference in maintaining price stability, it is likely that it will employ mitigating measures to ensure the continued supply of key commodities. These strategies could include the purchase and use of additional tugboats, adjustments to offloading systems for ships at sea, and the redirection of formal and informal imports through IRG-controlled ports and IRG areas. However, if these mitigation strategies are not implemented or if additional strikes occur that limit the recovery of operational capacity, then there is potential for supply shortages to lead to sharp price increases akin to that observed between March 2015 and December 2022.
WFP began distributing the last cycle of food assistance for 2024 to IRG-controlled areas in early December. Under the prioritization phase of its re-targeting and registration exercise, the organization has now reduced the number of targeted beneficiaries from 3.6 to 2.8 million people. While 800,000 people are losing direct access to food assistance, this represents only 8 percent of the population of more than 10.2 million across the eight governorates and parts of Al Hudaydah, Taiz, Marib, and Al Jawf that make up IRG-controlled areas. Given the deteriorating macroeconomic situation, it is likely that some previous beneficiaries who are no longer receiving assistance will begin to face more substantial food consumption gaps, resulting in some households falling into Emergency (IPC Phase 4). However, FEWS NET does not anticipate a change in outcomes at the area level.
In SBA areas, WFP completed the first cycle of the Targeted Emergency Food Assistance (TEFA) program in November by providing assistance to 1.4 million people across 34 districts. Preparations are underway in December for a second cycle of assistance, with distributions likely to begin in January. WFP is expecting to increase assistance in the forthcoming cycle to reach 2.8 million people, and while at least one additional cycle of TEFA distributions is expected in early 2025, details on the timing and number of beneficiaries are not yet publicly available. Additional cycles of TEFA are contingent on funding being secured.
The National Center for Meteorology and Early Warning is forecasting very cold weather in the highlands of Al-Bayda, Dhamar, Sana'a, Amran, Sa’adah, and the highlands of western Al-Jawf, southern and western Marib, Ibb, Al-Dhale'e, Lahj, Abyan, Shabwa, Hadramawt, and Al-Mahra governorates through January. Normally, frost waves between December and January damage crops, limit plant growth, and cause the deaths of bees that are essential for honey production. However, this year’s frost season is atypically cold, and the impacts on farmers’ income and associated economic losses are expected to be worse than usual in several highland governorates. Farmers’ off-season crops, such as vegetables, qat, and citrus, are expected to be negatively affected, and farmers have extremely limited coping options available to them after years of conflict and macroeconomic instability. Recent reports indicate that farms in Al-Bayda and Ibb have already experienced vegetable crop losses, with price increases anticipated in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, qat products have already seen price increases of 300 percent within the last month in Aden, which is considered a reference market for all IRG areas.