Attachments
KEY MESSAGES
● The Joint Monitoring Report (JMR) modeling, which uses data up to October 2024, raised 138 critical and 31 heightened risk alerts for exchange rate, displacement, and conflict. JMR modeling also indicates that 3.7 million people resided in areas at risk of deteriorating into Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse food insecurity conditions in October1
● In September 2024, according to the FAO High-Frequency Monitoring Snapshot and WFP Food Security Update, food insecurity in Yemen remained consistently high with over half of the population reporting inadequate food consumption. In September, 52% of Yemeni households were employing severe food-coping strategies (denoting a reduced Coping Strategies Index or rCSI of 19 or greater), with higher rates in AA-controlled areas (54%) than in GoY-controlled areas (49%). Common strategies included reducing meal portions, consuming cheaper foods, begging, and, in some cases, selling personal belongings. Overall, the use of coping strategies has remained more prevalent in AA-controlled areas.
● According to the Food Security and Agriculture Cluster population in need analysis, 17.1 million people in Yemen (49% of the population) will be in need of food assistance (severity levels three and above) during 2025, 12.4 million in AA-controlled governorates and 4.7 million in GoYcontrolled areas. This marks a 2.8% decrease compared to the number of food insecure people according to the Humanitarian Response Plan 2024, when 17.6 million people were in need of food assistance.
● A correlation analysis between Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) platforms and Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transitions (SMART) surveys highlighted Community Health and Nutrition Volunteers (CHNVs) data as a reliable alternative in AA regions due to house-to-house screenings. Proxy GAM trends in 2024 have been stable throughout the year and lower than the previous three years, except in Al Hodeidah governorate, where rates have been 4-5% above the national average.
● Yemen has been experiencing a severe outbreak of acute watery diarrhea and suspected cholera, with nearly 219,000 suspected cases reported between October 2023 and mid-October 2024 across all 22 governorates. Malnourished children are at heightened risk of contracting these diseases. A national cholera task force, co-chaired by Yemen’s Ministry of Public Health and Population, has come together to coordinate the response.
● In October, the exchange rate indicator generated 136 critical risk alerts in GoY governorates. The monthly Yemeni rial average in GoY-controlled areas has continued to depreciate, falling to YER 1,927 to USD 1 this month, a 24% depreciation compared to the same period in 2023 and an all-time record-high monthly average. The depreciating exchange rate in GoY areas is primarily attributable to the dwindling availability of foreign currency reserves as a result of decreased crude oil exports and reduced remittance inflows, compounded by the AA authorities’ decision to prohibit the sale of LPG produced in GoY-controlled Ma’rib governorate in their areas of control. In contrast, the exchange rate in AAcontrolled governorates remained largely stable due to tight control by the authorities at YER 533 to USD 1.
● The IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) reported that 263 households experienced displacement in October based on data collected in GoY governorates only. The JMR model raised two critical and three heightened risk alerts for displacement in Al Mahwit, Lahj, Sana’a, and Ta’iz governorates. Overall, between 1 January and 31 October 2024, nearly 3,100 households were newly displaced in Yemen, mostly into or within Al Hodeidah, Ma’rib, and Ta’iz governorates.
● In October, the conflict indicator recorded 28 heightened risk alerts but no critical alerts. The combined forces of the GoY and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) clashed with AA forces across the governorates of Al Dali’, Lahj, Shabwah, and Ta’iz. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) intensified its assaults on STC forces in Abyan governorate, causing multiple casualties. In Hays, Al Hodeidah governorate, and Arhab, Sana’a governorate, tribal conflicts and AA incursions led to further fatalities, underscoring escalating multifront tensions.
● JMR modeling raised no alerts related to fuel prices in October. Based on World Bank data, the average price of diesel, petrol, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in GoY governorates increased by 2.4% this month compared to August 2024 and by 8.9% compared to October 2023. In AA-controlled areas, the average price of diesel, petrol, and LPG only increased slightly by 0.7% between August– October and 0.6% year-on-year.
● The average price of the minimum food basket (MFB) in Yemen has continued to rise since January 2024, reaching its all-time highest value in October, though still below JMR alert thresholds. In GoY-controlled areas, the MFB reached YER 130,364 (USD 68) in October, 25% higher than the same month in 2023. In AA-controlled areas, the cost was YER 46,247 (USD 87), a 2% increase compared to the previous year.
● In October 2024, Yemen’s food imports totaled 472,690MT, a 30% decrease compared to September 2024, but a 12% increase compared to August. September food imports via Red Sea ports were the highest ever recorded. On the other hand, food imports via GoY-controlled southern ports in October 2024 were 20% higher than in September but 32% lower than in August. Fuel imports decreased by 7% compared to September and by 31% compared to August. Fuel imports via southern ports reached their lowest level since May 2024, while imports through Red Sea ports increased by 50% compared to September and were at similar levels compared to August.