Attachments
KEY MESSAGES
● Joint Monitoring Report (JMR) modeling – using data until January 2024 – shows that 2.5 million people live in areas at risk of experiencing a deterioration into IPC 4+ in both Government of Yemen (GoY) and Ansar Allah (AA)-controlled areas, a similar figure to previous JMR modeling in October 2023. The drought indicator raised four critical risk alerts in four different districts, while exchange rate, displacement, and conflict risk indicators raised a total of 150 heightened risk alerts in 128 districts (see Table 1).
● In February 2024, the IPC issued a new analysis update for GoY-controlled areas1 covering the period from October 2023–February 2024 indicating that the number of people in IPC 3 and IPC 4 increased by 18%, from 3.9 million to 4.6 million people, compared to the initial analysis, that covered projections from June–December 2023. The JMR model had also identified an increase of people at risk of experiencing a deterioration into IPC Phase 4 in December JMR (see Annex IV).
● The deterioration in food insecurity in GoY-controlled areas, as reported in the IPC analysis, is driven by deteriorating economic conditions and continued localized conflicts. These events have undermined some of the progress made in 2023, following the conclusion of the truce period
● In January 2024, the JMR model flagged four critical and one heightened risk alerts for drought in Abyan, Al Bayda, Hajjah, and Ta’iz governorates. Mild vegetation stress was observed, especially in Abyan, Al Bayda, Lahj,
Sa’dah, and Ta’iz. While December was notably dry, it did not reach drought conditions.
● In January 2024, the monthly average of the Yemeni rial in GoY-controlled areas depreciated reaching YER 1,552/ USD 1 – its lowest value since December 2021 – raising alerts in all 136 GoY-controlled districts.
● The impact of Cyclone Tej, which made landfall in Yemen in October 2023 and caused flash floods, resulted in ten heightened displacement alerts in the affected districts of Al Maharah and Hadramawt governorates in January 2024.
● According to WHO, from January 1 to March 17 2024, 1,566 suspected cholera cases were recorded in 15 governorates, with nine confirmed cases and six deaths.
Preparedness measures are key to addressing the drivers of cholera prior to the start of the rainy season in April. However, challenges implementing preventative measures persist due to low vaccines supply and resources. In 2023, Yemen witnessed outbreaks of measles, dengue fever, diphtheria, polio, and acute watery diarrhoea, straining its already weakened healthcare system and imposing financial burdens on poor households.
● AA attacks on ships in the Red Sea since November 2023 prompted the US and UK to launch Operation Poseidon Archer in January 2024 to counter them. Despite these efforts, AA attacks persisted. Clashes have also occurred domestically, involving various factions, such as the Southern Transitional Council (STC) Shabwani Defense Forces, Giants Brigades, and AA forces.
Incidents occurred in key districts in Shabwah and Al Bayda, indicating the strategic significance of these areas underscored by the deployment of reinforcements and intense fighting. Tribal conflicts and isolated attacks further contributed to the volatile security situation.
● As at February 2024, FAO and WFP observed a slight year-on-year decline in inadequate food consumption, below 10%. However, between November 2023 and February 2024, significant deterioration occurred in inadequate food consumption in AA-controlled areas, except for Al Mahwit, Dhamar, Sana’a, and Sana’a City.
Former WFP beneficiary households, no longer receiving aid since December 2023, saw severe food deprivation rise from 24% in November 2023 to 38% in February 2024. In January 2024, WFP reported that 55% of surveyed households in GoY-controlled areas reported inadequate access to food.
● Attacks in the Red Sea since November 2023 have prompted a shift in global shipping routes, as vessels avoid the area and opt instead for longer journeys via the Cape of Good Hope. This rerouting led to increased voyage times and costs. War risk premiums increased up to 1% of ship value. Import volumes to Yemen, however, have not been negatively impacted so far. Food and fuel imports increased in January, while food prices remained stable. Amid ongoing tensions, the JMR team continues to closely monitor import dynamics and food price variations to assess the risks to Yemen’s food and nutrition security.