Yemen Joint Monitoring Report: Bimonthly Update on Food and Nutrition Security Crisis Risks (April 2025 - Report 8)

KEY MESSAGES

• The Joint Monitoring Report (JMR) modeling raised 119 critical and 78 heightened risk alerts for conflict, displacement, drought, exchange rate, and fuel prices in February 2025. JMR modeling also indicates that up to 3.8 million people (11% of the population) resided in areas at risk of deteriorating into Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse food insecurity levels in the same month.(1)
• In January, according to both the FAO High-Frequency Monitoring Snapshot and WFP Food Security Update, food insecurity – as measured by inadequate food consumption – remained consistently high across the country. The primary drivers of continuing high levels of food insecurity include economic instability, high food prices in GoY areas, impacts of the lean season, limited livelihood opportunities, funding shortages causing humanitarian assistance gaps (particularly impacting AA areas), and limited conflict across frontlines. During this month, more Yemeni households relied on Crisis or Emergency livelihood coping strategies compared to December, including selling productive assets, withdrawing children from school, begging, etc. Foodbased coping strategies declined slightly, suggesting some relief in food stress, but nearly half of households still used severe coping measures (denoting a reduced Coping Strategies Index or rCSI >=19).
• Yemen is expected to face worsening drought conditions in mid-March 2025, with minimal rainfall and rising temperatures aggravating water scarcity. While isolated showers may occur in the highlands, most regions will receive than 5 mm of rain, and desert areas will see virtually none. These dry conditions will reduce crop yields, accelerate soil degradation, and limit pasture regeneration, threatening both farming and livestock livelihoods.
• In January 2025, the JMR model raised 117 critical and two heightened risk alerts resulting from exchange rate depreciation in areas under Government of Yemen (GoY) control. The monthly average exchange rate hit a new record high of YER 2,300 to USD 1 in February, marking a 28% depreciation compared to February 2024. The depreciating exchange rate in GoY areas is primarily attributable to the dwindling availability of foreign currency reserves resulting from halted crude oil exports and reduced remittance inflows, compounded by the Ansar Allah (AA) decision to prohibit the sale of liquefied petroleum gas produced in GoY-controlled Ma’rib governorate in AA areas. In contrast, the exchange rate in AA-controlled governorates remained largely stable at YER 536 to USD 1 as a result of tight control by the authorities. Despite the nearly fixed exchange rate by AA authorities, there remain concerns about liquidity, the status of foreign currency reserves in AA areas, and disruptions in the international banking operation.
• In February 2025, 47 heightened fuel risk alerts were recorded in the GoY-controlled governorates of Al Dali’, Al Hodeidah, Al Maharah, Lahj, and Ta’iz related to rising gas prices. Al Dali’ saw the highest increase (65% yearon-year), followed by Al Hodeidah and Ta’iz (31% each), Lahj (24%), and Al Maharah (19%). The average fuel price declined in AA-controlled areas during the same period, with price caps minimizing variations despite higher US dollar costs.
• In February 2025, Yemen recorded 25 heightened conflict risk alerts, primarily in Abyan, Aden, Al Bayda, Dhamar, Hadramawt, Ibb, Lahj, Shabwah, and Ta’iz governorates. These alerts were related to violence and other incidents in neighboring districts, such as tribal conflicts, targeted killings, and clashes between armed groups. In Al Quraishyah (Al Bayda), Al Masud tribesmen launched an attack on AA forces, resulting in an imprecise number of AA fatalities (coded as three) and the death of one tribesman. In Rada’ (Al Bayda), violence and tribal disputes involved the shooting of a civilian, and tribal clashes resulted in one fatality. Additional violence in Rada’ included the assassination of an AA commander. In Al Had (Lahj), unidentified gunmen killed two civilians on February 6. Five fatalities were reported from armed clashes over a land dispute in Ba’dan district (Ibb) on February 11, while in Al Makhadir (Ibb), on February 2, AA forces killed two Salafists, accusing them of terrorism, and tortured a qat vendor to death after they abducted him from a qat market in January, although the motive remains unclear.
• The IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix reports a total of 365 households newly displaced from January– February. The JMR model raised one critical and four heightened risk alerts for displacement in Al Bayda, Amran, and Sana’a governorates. Of the total number of households displaced from January–February, 55% reported conflict as the main driver, while the remaining 45% cited economic reasons.
• In February, the JMR recorded one critical drought risk alert in Sharas district in Hajjah governorate, signaling lower precipitation compared to the same month in previous years. The Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) for January–February showed no impact on cropped land, as many areas were off-season during this period.
• The average minimum food basket (MFB) price in GoYcontrolled areas has continued to increase steadily, reaching the highest value ever recorded in Yemeni rial – YER 144,000 (USD 64) – in February, a 27% increase year-on-year. This increase, largely owing to currency depreciation in GoY areas, did not surpass the heightened or critical risk alert threshold. In AA-controlled areas, the MFB cost in February decreased by 11% compared to February 2024 at YER 46,000 (USD 85).
• In January–February 2025, Yemen’s total food imports reached 1,268,000MT, a 9% increase from the previous two months. Imports through Red Sea ports remained stable at 825,000MT, while imports via southern ports rose by 32%. A ban on wheat flour imports through Red Sea ports, announced in November, has halted flour imports since December, while wheat grain imports remained steady – and grew slightly higher in February – compared to December and January. Fuel imports through Red Sea ports dropped by 27% but stayed within the average, while imports via southern ports increased by 32%, still below the 12-month average.
• Yemen has been experiencing a severe outbreak of acute watery diarrhea and suspected cholera since mid-March 2024. In January 2025, Yemen recorded 6,110 new cholera cases and four related deaths, with a case fatality rate of 0.1%. This marks a 42% decrease in cases and a 75% drop in deaths compared to December 2024. Despite the overall decline, the country continues to report over 1,000 cases weekly and it bears the highest cholera burden globally. Malnourished children are at heightened risk of contracting these diseases. Nearly half of Yemen’s children under 5 suffer from chronic malnutrition, with stagnant stunting rates and 17% facing severe wasting.

(1) Alerts and calculations regarding people living in areas at risk of deteriorating into IPC 4 or worse are based on statistically robust JMR quantitative indicators. Other factors relevant to food and nutrition insecurity are incorporated into other parts of this report but not included in JMR risk alert calculations because of technical considerations.