Summary of Causes, Context and Key Issues
Escalated conflict, restriction and disruption of commercial and humanitarian imports, population mass displacement, loss of livelihoods and income, scarcity and high price of fuel, disrupted market system and high price of food and essential commodities, suspension of Safety net and public work programme that used to serve 2.5 million people contributed to the widespread food insecurity and malnutrition. The conflict damaged the public and private infrastructure; destabilized the market system and prices; negatively affected employment opportunities and income and devastated livelihoods, exposing millions of the rural and urban population to destitution and food insecurity. About 51% of the population is suffering from food insecurity and malnutrition, in line with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The population under Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) has increased by 9.4% compared to the results of the June 2015 IPC analysis. Moreover, the conflict displaced more than 2.75 million since March 2015. The May 2016 - 9th Task Force on Population Movement (TFPM) report shows that around 798,772 individuals, conflict and disaster driven IDPs) returned to their villages of origin requiring different livelihood and rehabilitation support. .During the analysis period, due to the fuel shortage crisis, prices rose by about 60% compared to the pre-crisis prices, which contributed, to an increase in food prices, further reducing food access to the poorest households who rely heavily on the market. Exchange rate fluctuation from 214.9 YR/USD to 300 YR/USD in the parallel market contributed to high price of goods and services, influenced trade levels, and compromised the relative incomes, purchasing power, and economic access to food, essential commodities, and basic services. The widespread civil insecurity, economic downturn, currency fluctuation, shortage of fuel, electricity and gas, absence of employment opportunities due to the closure of small businesses affected the urban and rural poor livelihoods and income sources, which eroded purchasing power and households’ ability to fulfil their food and basic needs. If the conflict, instability and other food insecurity drivers do not improve, livelihoods and food security of the majority of population under Phase 2 (30%) and Phase 3 (26%) are likely to deteriorate.