From October to December 2020, 13.5 million people (45% of the analysed population) are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), despite ongoing humanitarian food assistance (HFA). This includes 9.8 million people (33 percent) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), 3.6 million (12 percent) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and of greatest concern, approximately 16,500 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).
Between January and June 2021, the number increases by nearly 3 million to 16.2 million people (54% of the total population analysed) likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC phase 3 or above). Out of these, an estimated 11 million people will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), 5 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and the number of those in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), will likely increase to 47,000.
Food insecurity is more severe in areas with active fighting or bordering areas with limited access, and is particularly affecting Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and marginalized groups. The caseload in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) is mainly found in Al Jawf, Hajjah and Amran. In Al Jawf and Hajjah, conflict, displacement and limited humanitarian access are the main drivers. While in Amran, highly vulnerable marginalized groups such as landless wage labourers and lack of access to public services such as water, sanitation and health are the primary causes. Overall, there are more than 4 million IDPs in Yemen who face comparatively worse food security outcomes.
The projection assumes that all beneficiaries will receive 50% assistance in January – June, any further reductions (including the possibility of zero assistance) coupled with other shock could be lead to heightened food insecurity levels, including further populations falling into IPC phase 5 (Catastrophe).
An emerging concern is the projected deterioration in the nutrition situation in at least 15 out of 19 zones of the country in the Aug to December 2020 period for which an ongoing IPC acute malnutrition analysis has been completed.