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Conflict and currency shortages remain of high concern for acute food insecurity in Yemen
KEY MESSAGES
• Conflict and poor macroeconomic conditions continue to drive high levels of acute food insecurity in Yemen. Overall, an estimated 17 to 19 million people are expected to be in need of humanitarian food assistance throughout 2020. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread, with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes expected in worst-affected governorates. Although not the most likely scenario, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be possible if food supply is cut off for a prolonged period of time.
• The exchange rate has continued to depreciate in southern areas, reaching 820 YER/USD by the second week of September. In northern areas, the exchange rate continued to remain stable, at levels just over 600 YER/USD. According to FAO data, August terms-of-trade between wheat flour and wages (casual labor and agricultural labor) were worst in Amran, Hajjah, Dhamar, and Raymah. Terms of trade deteriorated the most between July and August in Al Hudaydah, Al Mahrah, and Abyan.
• Despite some evidence of recovery of formal remittances from Gulf countries, key informants report that levels of remittances into Yemen remain below average and below COVID-19 outbreak levels. Despite some improvement in access to income in urban areas as COVID-19 control measures were eased, reduced income from salary payments and remittances alongside high food prices and reductions to humanitarian assistance are contributing to restricted food access.