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Continued Frost Risk and Low Soil Moisture in Yemen’s Highlands
The forecast indicates that the period will generally be cool and dry in the higher elevated regions, with a strong likelihood of frost in the interior highlands. There is also a moderate potential for rainfall in the western coastal mountains, along with scattered showers in the southern coastal areas.
Key Forecasts for Late-January 2026
- Precipitation: Dry conditions are forecasted to continue throughout the upcoming dekad. Scattered light rain could occur in select regions, such as Socotra and Ibb governorates. However, IRI forecast models suggest a roughly 40% chance of below-average rainfall in the southern Red Sea coastal areas.
- Temperature: By the end of the month, temperatures across Yemen are expected to fluctuate widely. In the Northern and Central Highlands, including Sa’ada, Sana’a, Dhamar, and Al Bayda, nighttime lows may drop to around 2 °C, heightening the risk of frost (as shown in Fig. 1). Conversely, daytime highs in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea coastal zones, as well as northern Hadramaut and Al Maharah, are projected to reach about 30 °C. These temperatures are anticipated to surpass the long-term dekadal average, with an estimated 40% probability.
- Desert Locust: Minor winter breeding of locusts may continue in coastal regions that experience rainfall, but no major swarm formation or outbreaks are expected during this time.
Implications on Agricultural Livelihoods
These combined meteorological conditions are expected to impact agro-ecological livelihoods in the following ways:
- Crop Production: The dry and cool weather, along with elevated frost risks in the highlands, could damage sensitive crops such as qat, coffee seedlings, fruit trees, and vegetables, potentially delaying the next planting season and increasing irrigation demands across most farming systems.
- Livestock and Rangelands: Persistent dry conditions are likely to strain pasture availability, especially in eastern and highland regions, which may reduce livestock productivity, heighten reliance on supplementary feed, and exacerbate cold stress on young and vulnerable animals.
- Water Resources and Agricultural Inputs: Insufficient rainfall is anticipated to limit soil moisture replenishment, leading to intensified competition for irrigation water, elevated production costs, and greater vulnerability for smallholder farmers who depend on shallow groundwater and rain-fed systems.
Recommendations and Coping Strategies
To address the identified risks, FAO and its partners recommend the following priority actions:
- Early Warning and Coordination: National and local authorities should closely monitor short-term weather forecasts and share timely agrometeorological advisories with agricultural communities, especially in frost-prone areas, to facilitate proactive decision-making.
- Crop Production: Farmers in highland regions should implement basic frost protection measures for sensitive crops and postpone planting until temperatures exceed critical levels. Additionally, they should prioritize efficient irrigation and water-conserving techniques to minimize losses amid ongoing dry conditions.
- Livestock and Rangelands: Livestock owners are encouraged to enhance supplementary feeding practices and provide adequate shelter for young and vulnerable animals to mitigate cold stress, particularly in highland zones. Ongoing monitoring of pasture conditions in eastern areas is essential to foresee potential feed shortages and enable prompt livestock management responses.