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UNEXPECTED RESURGENCE OF FROST ACROSS SOUTHERN UPLANDS, AS THE WINTER SEASON EXITS
The second dekad of February 2026 is expected to remain cool, dry, and stable across most of Yemen, in line with typi-cal late-winter climatology. The continued occurrence of frost episodes is unusual, given that the winter season is usu-ally nearing its end. These conditions are likely to affect remaining agricultural activities, even as most agro-dependent households are preparing for the start of the upcoming farming season.
Key Forecasts for Mid-February 2026
· Precipitation: No widespread, significant rainfall is expected. Isolated light drizzle may occur along the western escarpment facing the Red Sea (e.g., the Ibb and Taiz highlands), but with negligible accumulation, consistent with the dry winter season.
· Temperature: The second dekad of February 2026 is expected to signal a gradual transition out of winter, with temperatures progressively increasing compared to previous weeks. Overall, near-normal temperatures are forecast across most of the country. However, the elevated southern highlands, particularly Dhamar and Al Bayda, are likely to see minimum temperatures fall below 2°C, creating favorable conditions for frost formation and resulting in a high risk of nocturnal frost episodes in these areas.
Implications on Agricultural Livelihoods
These combined meteorological conditions are expected to affect the following agro-ecological livelihoods:
· Field Crops (Wheat, Barley, Sorghum – Highlands): Ongoing dry conditions will worsen soil moisture deficits, increasing stress on crops in early vegetative stages. Under these stressed conditions, frost becomes the main hazard in elevated areas, where early-sown and sensitive seedlings face a high risk of tissue damage, poor establishment, and potential stand losses.
· Horticulture (Vegetables, Qat, Fruit Trees): Low nighttime temperatures and a heightened risk of frost in highland areas are likely to slow vegetative growth and delay development of warm-season vegetables such as tomato and potato. Frost and chilling may also stress young qat shoots, potentially affecting leaf quality and market value. By contrast, deciduous fruit trees (e.g., grapes, pomegranates, almonds) are currently dormant and are therefore expected to experience minimal direct impact from the cold.
· Rangeland and Livestock: Limited rainfall is restricting natural pasture regeneration, reducing forage availability and increasing dependence on supplementary feed. At the same time, frost and cold night winds raise livestock energy requirements to maintain body temperature, particularly for young, weak, and small ruminants, and may gradually contribute to deterioration in body condition.
· Water Resources: With dry conditions persisting, agricultural and domestic activities will continue to rely on stored water and groundwater abstraction, increasing pressure on already limited reserves.
Recommendations and Coping Strategies
To reduce these risks, FAO and its partners recommend the following priority actions:
· Early Warning and Preparedness: Issue timely frost and cold-stress advisories for farming and pastoral areas in the Central Highlands and Southern Uplands, including guidance on expected frost occurrence and potential threats to agricultural livelihoods.
· Crop Production and Post-harvest Management: Ensure proper storage of harvested crops, keeping grains and seeds in cool, dry, and rodent-proof conditions.
· Livestock Management: Maintain adequate access to clean water and supplementary feed, especially for young, weak, or small ruminants, to help reduce stress during cold periods.