Attachments
Overview:
Unusual heavy rainfall to trigger floods and multi-sectoral damage in Western wadis.
Key Concerns:
- Increasing rainfall and flood risk: Forecasts for the first dekad of May 2026 indicate highly uneven rainfall across Yemen. The Central Highlands, particularly Dhamar and Ibb, are expected to receive intense rainfall of up to 150 mm, likely causing prolonged flash flooding. High flood risk is anticipated in Wadi Zabid, with moderate (alert-level) risk in the Mour and Sihan wadis, and lower risk in the Sordod, Raymah, and Tuban wadis (Fig. 1). In contrast, coastal areas along the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea are expected to see low to moderate rainfall, generally below 10 mm.
- Rising temperatures: Temperatures are expected to continue increasing in line with seasonal patterns. IRI forecasts suggest that most of the country is likely to experience above-normal temperatures, with probabilities of around 60% across the eastern regions and, to some extent, along the Red Sea coastline (Fig. 2).
Implications on Agricultural Livelihoods
- Crop production: Rainfall in this period is critical for optimal germination of sorghum and millet and supports generally favorable production prospects. However, heavy rainfall south of the Central Highlands and across the Southern Uplands is likely to inundate low-lying and poorly drained fields, delaying rainfed planting due to waterlogging and limited field access. Early-stage crops remain highly vulnerable, with increased risk of damage and disease under humid conditions.
- Livestock and pastoral systems: Pastoral areas are likely to experience reduced pasture availability due to waterlogging and flooding, limiting livestock mobility in flood-prone zones. Humid conditions heighten the risk of diseases such as foot rot and vector-borne infections, and animal productivity may decline due to stress.
- Infrastructure and rural access: Rural infrastructure will come under strain, with unpaved roads and feeder tracks at risk of damage or washouts. Flooded crossings may isolate communities and disrupt input supply. Irrigation and drainage systems will require maintenance, and floodplain settlements—especially those with mud housing—remain highly vulnerable to damage.
Adaptation and Coping Strategies:
By proactively planning for these agrometeorological conditions and using available resources, Yemeni agricultural livelihoods can better mitigate the impacts expected during early May 2026:
- Early Warning Systems:
- Strengthen dissemination of timely weather and flood alerts to communities and local authorities.
- Activate community-based early warning mechanisms to support rapid preparedness.
- Ensure last-mile communication via radio, mobile networks, and local focal points.
- Agricultural livelihoods (crops, livestock and fisheries)
- Crops: promote early harvesting where feasible, protect seeds and inputs, and use flood-tolerant or short-cycle varieties.
- Livestock: move animals to higher ground, secure access to clean water, and reinforce disease prevention measures.
- Flood and water management
- Clear and maintain drainage channels, culverts, and small water control structures ahead of peak rainfall.
- Implement temporary diversion and protective works in flood-prone areas to reduce overflow impacts.