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Overview:
As April begins, Yemen typically moves into the core of its spring rainy season, with rainfall normally increasing. In 2026, however, the first ten days of April are expected to see particularly intense rainfall and rising temperatures, offering favorable conditions for planting but also heightening the risk of flash floods.
Key Concerns:
- Increasing Rainfall and Flood Risk: During the first ten days of April 2026, Yemen is expected to see widespread but uneven rainfall. Intense accumulations above 150 mm are likely over the Central Highlands and Southern Uplands, where IRI forecasts indicate up to a 60% probability of above-average rainfall. In central and eastern areas, only localized moderate rain (20–40 mm) is anticipated. This spatial variability, combined with steep terrain, is expected to heighten flash flood risk (Fig. 1), ranging from high in Wadis Zabid and Rimah, to moderate (alert) in Wadis Mour, Sordod, Dhanah, Siham, Rasyan, and Mawza, and lower in Wadis Al Jawf, Nakhlah, Tuban, Banna, and Hwayrah, where rapid downstream runoff is likely.
- Rising Temperatures: As Yemen transitions out of the winter season, temperatures are expected to rise, increasing the likelihood of heat-related risks. Red Sea coastal areas, particularly along Hajjah, Al Hudaydah, and Taizz, are forecast to experience episodic daytime temperatures between 35–38°C, raising concerns about potential heatwaves (Fig. 2). Similarly, Al Jawf and Marib are expected to reach around 35°C. According to CAMA and IRI forecasts, there is also a high probability (approximately 60%) of above-average temperatures along the Red Sea coasts of Hajjah and Al Hudaydah, and along the Arabian Sea coasts of Hadramaut and Al Maharah.
Implications on Agricultural Livelihoods
- Crops: Heavy rainfall in the Highlands will support land preparation, sorghum planting, and water harvesting, but flash floods in Wadis Zabid and Rimah may damage soil structure and wash away seeds. Vegetable crops may experience higher pest pressure and nutrient leaching.
- Livestock: Improved pasture conditions will encourage flock expansion and restocking, but prolonged wetness will increase the risk of parasites and livestock diseases, driving up the need for vaccines and anti-parasitic treatments.
- Economy & Labor: April is the lean season in southern areas, and heavy rainfall may restrict market access and disrupt crop sales. Demand for agricultural labor for land preparation and planting will remain high.
Adaptation and Coping Strategies:
By proactively planning for these agrometeorological conditions and using resources, Yemeni agricultural livelihoods can better mitigate the impacts of early April 2026:
- Early Warning Systems: Form local monitoring groups in high-risk areas (e.g., Wadis Zabid and Rimah) to track water levels and rapid runoff and issue real-time alerts.
- Flood and Water Management: Rehabilitate water-harvesting structures (cisterns, ponds, terraces), reinforce valley protections, clear drainage channels in high-risk wadis (such as Zabid and Rimah), and promote small-scale storage to capture excess rain for the dry season.
- Crop Protection and Support: Secure timely access to tools and quality seeds, provide greenhouse and irrigation support for vegetables, and establish community seed banks and post-harvest facilities to minimize losses.
- Livestock Health, Productivity, and Economic Coping: Implement vaccination and anti-parasite campaigns, process surplus forage into stored feed, support restocking programs, train farmers through field schools, and expand measures such as Cash-for-Work to strengthen household resilience.