Issued on Wednesday, 16th May 2018 at 0130 local time.
A Tropical Cyclone is expected to develop at the eastern end of the Gulf of Aden in the next 24 hours (See Figure 1). This is forecast to track westwards along the Gulf and bring exceptionally high rainfall totals to a usually very arid region.
Note – the uncertainty in the track of this cyclone means that we remain unsure whether the heaviest rain (and most severe impacts) will fall in either Southern Yemen, Northern Somalia, and there is a low risk that it may impact upon Djibouti over the coming weekend.
Severe flash flooding and river flooding across the region will lead to a loss of human life, livestock, and the destruction of crops, property and infrastructure.
Very heavy rainfall occurring across Western Yemen (linked to, although not directly from the cyclone) is likely to promote cholera infection rates in the weeks ahead.