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Summary
This report presents three possible scenarios regarding wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia. The first scenario anticipates that the Black Grain Initiative fails, with all grain exports via the Black Sea halted. Such an eventuality will require Yemen to seek alternative markets to compensate for grain shortages. The second scenario suggests that limited exports will be allowed through the Black Sea Grain Initiative in keeping with the current status quo. Wheat exports to Yemen from Ukraine and Russia will be limited in this scenario, causing a significant shortfall of wheat and an increase in prices and demand. The third scenario anticipates a return to pre-war export dynamics, with an unrestricted resumption of exports and production in Ukraine. While the third situation has the least severe humanitarian consequences on Yemen, it is the most unlikely. Of the three scenarios, the second scenario is the most probable. A complete long term blockade of exports from Ukraine and Russia is doubtful due to the global reliance on products from these countries and the presence of agreements, such as the Black Sea Grain Initiative Agreement, aimed at limiting the humanitarian and economic impact of the War in Ukraine globally. However, Ukraine’s total resumption of exports and production is the least likely scenario. The war has impacted Ukraine’s agricultural industry and infrastructure, and therefore the resumption of production and exportation will likely be limited. Recovery will require time and funds to re-operate and restore the affected fields and facilities.