General Situation during August 2016
Forecast until mid-October 2016
The Desert Locust situation remained very serious in Yemen during August. Another generation of breeding occurred, causing hopper bands to form in the interior and on the southern coast; however, the situation remained unclear because it was not safe to carry out surveys. At least one swarm reached northern Somalia, eastern Ethiopia and perhaps Djibouti. Control operations were initiated in Pakistan and Ethiopia. There remains a risk that more swarms could form in Yemen and move to the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea coast. All countries should remain extremely vigilant. Elsewhere the situation remained calm. Low numbers of adults were widely distributed throughout the summer breeding area of the northern Sahel in West Africa and Sudan, and along the Indo-Pakistan border due to widespread rainfall and favourable ecological conditions. During the forecast period, small-scale breeding will continue in these areas, causing locust numbers to increase, and a few adult groups could appear in west and northwest Mauritania by mid-October.
Western Region. Ecological conditions became favourable throughout most of the northern Sahel of West Africa during August as a result of good widespread rains. Consequently, low numbers of solitarious adults were scattered throughout most of southern Mauritania and Chad. A similar situation may be present in northern Mali and Niger. Summer breeding will cause locust number to increase throughout the forecast period in all areas and could extend to southern Algeria. By mid-October, an increased number of locusts may suddenly appear in west and northwest Mauritania as vegetation rapidly dries out in the south, leading to the potential formation of small groups.
Central Region. The locust situation remained serious during August in Yemen where a second generation of breeding took place in the interior and on the southern coast, giving rise to hopper bands. Few surveys could be carried out due to insecurity. At least one ﬁrst-generation swarm migrated to Pakistan while other smaller swarmlets moved to the Horn of Africa along the borders of Djibouti, Ethiopia and northern Somalia where they laid eggs that hatched, causing small hopper bands to form in eastern Ethiopia and northwest Somalia. Ethiopian teams treated 208 ha. More groups and small swarms are likely to form in Yemen that could move through the highlands and onto the Red Sea coast and into adjacent areas of Saudi Arabia while other swarms could move to the Horn of Africa. Elsewhere, scattered adults were present in the interior of Sudan and on the Red Sea coastal plains in Saudi Arabia where small-scale breeding will cause locust numbers to increase.
Eastern Region. In late July, at least one mature swarm from Yemen arrived on the Uthal coast of Pakistan where local breeding was already in progress and laid eggs that hatched and hopper groups formed. Ground teams treated 410 ha. A few gregarious adults reached the Indus Valley while scattered mature adults were present in Cholistan and, to a lesser extent, in adjacent areas of Rajasthan, India. Small-scale breeding will continue along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border, causing locust numbers to increase slightly. Adult groups could form near Uthal.