General Situation during June 2016
Forecast until mid-August 2016
The Desert Locust situation remained extremely serious in Yemen during June. New swarms formed in the interior, some of which moved into the highlands and may continue to the Red Sea coast while others could still move to the summer breeding areas along the Indo-Pakistan border. Crop damage was reported in Yemen. More swarms are expected to form during July and another generation of breeding could commence in August. Survey and control operations remain limited due to insecurity. Elsewhere, breeding ended in southern Morocco and northern Mauritania, and adults moved towards summer breeding areas in southern Mauritania. Seasonal rains commenced in the northern Sahel between Mauritania and Sudan where small-scale breeding will cause locust numbers to increase slightly during the forecast period.
Western Region. Locust infestations declined in the southern portion of the Western Sahara in Morocco and in northern Mauritania due to drying conditions and control operations (375 ha) in June. Adults and a few small groups that escaped detection or control moved towards the summer breeding areas of southern and southeastern Mauritania. Isolated adults were present in north and west Niger. As seasonal rains started in the northern Sahel of West Africa in mid-June, small-scale breeding is expected to occur during the forecast period, causing locust numbers to increase primarily in Mauritania and, to a lesser extent in Mali, Niger and Chad. In Northwest Africa, ground teams treated a few small hopper groups that formed from local breeding in the Central Sahara of Algeria.
Central Region. The locust situation deteriorated further in Yemen as hopper bands continued to form in the interior, supplemented by new swarm formation that led to crop damage and an extension of the current threat to the central highlands and perhaps the Red Sea coast. Limited surveys and control operations (365 ha) were undertaken despite prevailing insecurity. If the swarms remain in Yemen, another generation of breeding could occur. However, there remains a risk that some swarms could move to the southern coast and be carried by strong south-westerly monsoon winds through coastal areas of Oman to the Indo-Pakistan summer breeding area. Elsewhere, the situation remained calm. Isolated adults were present in northern Oman, on the northwest coast of Somalia and on the northern Red Sea coast in Eritrea. Seasonal rains started in the interior of Sudan and western Eritrea where small-scale breeding will cause locust numbers to increase slightly.
Eastern Region. No locusts were reported and the situation remained calm in the region during June. Small-scale breeding is likely to occur with the arrival of the monsoon in July, causing locust numbers to increase slightly. There is a low to moderate risk that a few small swarms from Yemen could arrive along the Indo-Pakistan border.