ACAPS Global Risk Analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs
ACAPS analysts conduct daily monitoring and independent analysis of more than 150 countries, including risk analysis and risks analysis updates. ACAPS continues to monitor closely the risks identified in order to establish how they have evolved and if they have materialised. You can find the updates of the risks identified in Global Risk Report – March 2020 at the end of this analysis.
The objective is to enable humanitarian decisionmakers to understand potential changes that could have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the possible developments and understanding their impact, these potential changes can be taken into account in planning and preparedness.
WHAT IS A RISK?
Risk is a function of probability and impact. A risk is the probability of a hazard (or multiple hazards) occurring, combined with the estimated impact of the hazard(s). The risk level (Low, Medium, and High) posed by a hazard increases as either the probability that it will occur increases, the severity of the expected impact increases – or both.
Overall, the occurrence of a risk prompts a change from the status quo, which leads to a notable deterioration in the humanitarian situation and a higher number of people in need (exposure), or a higher severity of need (intensity).
The ACAPS risk methodology combines probability with impact for each hazard or combination of hazards. This gives us the risk. Risks will fall into one of three categories: Low, Medium, or High.
OBJECTIVE OF RISK ANALYSIS
The crises identified in this report have been selected because there are certain events or factors (triggers) that may emerge over the coming six months, which point towards a potential shift or change in the current situations of the monitored countries. Some risks are raised as ‘new trends’ while others as ‘rapid and marked deterioration’. A deteriorating humanitarian situation that continues at the same rate is considered a trend, rather than a risk. The latter is not included in the report.
KEY PRINCIPLES OF RISK ANALYSIS
Risk analysis requires a solid understanding of the context and an investigation of the interaction of the variables that could cause or resist change.
Risk analysis is not an exact science. An event identified as a hazard might not evolve or materialise as expected, or not have the projected impact. Events or factors (triggers) that were expected to drive a shift or change in the current situation may not occur or new factors might arise, preventing the expected change or shift in the situation from happening.
The probability of a risk does not need to be high for it to be a concern. A hazardous event estimated to have a 50% probability of occurring should be a cause for concern for humanitarians. In some cases, a probability as low as 30% may be of concern.