Yemen

Conflict escalation in Marib and potential humanitarian and economic impacts: Scenario

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Analysis
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How might conflict developments in Marib affect displacement and the economy in Yemen?

The battle of Marib could potentially tip the balance between the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) and the Houthis. Marib is a key source of economic income thanks to its natural resources.

This report focuses on the (unlikely but possible) scenario in which the Houthis take full control of Marib city and governorate. It includes displacement estimates related to increased conflict in Marib and the impact on the economy of the IRG.

Key takeaways:

  • An estimated 500,000 people could be displaced if the Houthis take Marib city and Marib Al Wadi.

  • The IRG would lose at least USD 19.5 million per month from the loss of crude oil exports.

  • This would put pressure on IRG foreign currency reserves, further depreciating the Yemeni rial (YER) and increasing food prices throughout the country.