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In the second ten days of July 2025, Yemen is expected to follow usual seasonal trends, with mild temperatures in the highlands and intense heat in the eastern deserts and coastal regions. Localized rains in the highlands will help enhance soil moisture, but persistent heat and irregular rainfall are likely to continue posing challenges to rainfed agriculture and livestock.
Key Concerns:
Continued below-average convective rainfall: During the second ten days, steady but progressive precipitation is anticipated to affect the Central Highlands, Southern Uplands, and inland areas of the Eastern Plateau. Cumulative rainfall is expected to reach up to 60mm in Ibb and Dhamar, which remains about 40% below the long-term average (according to Biweekely Forecasts of IRI). These light to moderate rains will likely bring modest improvements in soil moisture, helping to alleviate dryness and enhance conditions in these regions.
Sustained high temperatures with regional variations: In the second ten days of July 2025, daytime temperatures across Yemen are expected to remain high, increasing the risk of heatwaves. Extreme temperatures of up to 45°C are forecasted in the desert governorates of Hadramaut, Al Maharah, Al Jawf, and Marib, as well as in the coastal area of Lahj. Along the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea coasts, temperatures are likely to range between 37°C and 40°C (see Fig. 1). In the highland governorates, daytime temperatures are expected to stay relatively mild, with cooler nights not dropping below 24°C. However, the overall temperatures—estimated to be about 40% above normal—will pose significant challenges to human and animal health, as well as to agricultural activities.
Wind and Dust Storm Risks : During the second ten days of July 2025, moderate to strong wind conditions are expected to boost dust activity, with concentrations ranging from 200 to 500 µg/m³. This is likely to be especially pronounced along the coastal areas of the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea.
Implications for Agricultural Livelihoods:
The rising temperatures and coastal dust storms pose significant challenges to agricultural livelihoods in Yemen:
• Crop Production:
• Higher temperatures may increase evapotranspiration, stressing crops—especially during critical stages like flowering and grain filling.
• Recent rains offer some relief to ongoing agricultural activities; however, uneven spatial distribution and increasing variability raise concerns for rainfed agriculture, which remains highly susceptible to localized rainfall deficits.
• Livestock and Rangelands:
• High temperatures and irregular moisture patterns continue to impact rangelands and pastoral systems, reducing forage availability and adding stress to livestock
• In high-temperature zones, livestock face greater risks of heat stress, which could lead to higher mortality rates and reduced milk production.