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Yemen

Agrometeorological Early Warning Bulletin (21 - 31 January 2025) [EN/AR]

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PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES AND FROST RISK IN YEMEN*

By the end of second dekad of January 2025, Yemen experienced a combination of dry and cold conditions, with notable regional variability. In the highland areas, nighttime temperatures fell below 4°C, leading to frost in several governorates. In contrast, the coastal and lowland regions remained relatively warmer, with daytime temperatures averaging between 20–28°C. These weather trends, expected to continue until the end of the month, are likely to affect agricultural livelihoods and food security, especially in certain agro-ecological areas that are entering the main cropping season.

Key Concerns:

Dry Spell Risk: Rain-free conditions are anticipated to dominate most regions during the last dekad of the month. However, minimal rainfall is projected for the western parts of the Central Highlands and Southern Uplands, as well as coastal areas along the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, and Socotra Island. This ongoing dryness will further exacerbate the challenges of water scarcity, particularly for agricultural livelihoods that rely on rainfall. Despite the reduced intensity of rainfall, no significant deficit has been observed compared to the long-term average for this period.
The lack of adequate precipitation highlights the urgent need for water conservation strategies and alternative irrigation methods to support agricultural livelihoods and mitigate impacts on food security.
Temperature Variations and Frost Risk: As Yemen enters into the last dekad of January 2025, cold temperatures are expected to persist, especially in highland regions. On some days, nighttime temperatures may drop unexpectedly below 4°C, and in certain areas, they could approach or fall below freezing (0°C), increasing the risk of frost. The days of January 23 and 24 will be notable, as extremely cold temperatures will affect a large portion of the country’s hinterlands. This situation will heighten the risk of frost, impacting people's health, vegetation, and livestock. High-altitude governorates, including Sa'ada, Amran, Amanat Al Asimah, Sana'a, and Dhamar, are particularly vulnerable to recurrent frost episodes during these prolonged cold spells. Additionally, the interiors of Hadramaut and Al Maharah may occasionally experience desert frost under specific conditions (see Fig. 1). Meanwhile, coastal areas will experience relatively milder temperatures, ranging from 16°C at night to 26°C during the day.

Implications for Agriculture:

• Crop Stress: Frost in highland areas has impacted early-planted cereals, while ongoing dryness in arid regions has led to depleted soil moisture, reducing the growth potential of crops in the upcoming main season.

• Livestock: Poor pasture conditions have worsened in areas affected by water stress, forcing herders to rely on supplementary feeding or migrate in search of better grazing options.

• Water Resources: Extended dry conditions have significantly strained Yemen's already limited water resources. Insufficient rainfall during the dry season in some areas have resulted in underfilled wadis, reservoirs, and ponds, forcing communities to heavily rely on rapidly depleting groundwater reserves for irrigation and livestock support.

Adaptation and Coping Strategies:

FAO and other humanitarian partners should advocate for proactive measures to mitigate the adverse effects of the anticipated conditions on agricultural livelihoods and food security. These measures include:

• Frost Mitigation: Promote the use of mulching, frost-resistant crop varieties, and protective coverings for vulnerable crops.

• Livestock Care: Provide adequate shelter, supplementary feeding, and preventive veterinary care to safeguard animals from cold stress.

• Early Warning Systems: Enhance access to accurate weather forecasts and disseminate timely agrometeorological advisories to farmers and herders, enabling them to take proactive actions against frost risks