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DRY SPELLS AND RISING TEMPERATURES: IMPACT ON CROPS AND WATER
In mid-March 2025, Yemen is expected to face minimal rainfall, increasing temperatures, and intensified drought conditions, which will worsen water scarcity and diminished soil mois-ture levels.
Key Concerns:
Limited Rainfall: Yemen is anticipated to receive minimal rainfall, with isolated showers pos-sible in the highlands and localized heavy rain (exceeding 20 mm) in the Amran governorate.
However, most areas—such as the Central Highlands, Southern Uplands, and the coasts of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden—are likely to see less than 5 mm of rain. Desert regions are ex-pected to receive virtually no rainfall, exacerbating water scarcity.
Persistent Low Temperatures in Highland Areas: The Temperatures are forecasted to rise compared to the previous dekad, as noted by FAO-FSNIS, reflecting a gradual warming trend throughout Yemen. In the highlands, daytime temperatures will range from 18–25°C, with cooler nights around 10–15°C. Coastal areas, including Hajjah, Al Hudaydah, and Taizz, will experience warmer temperatures between 30–35°C, accompanied by high humidity. In the eastern desert regions, daytime temperatures will soar to 33–38°C, with night temperatures cooling to around 15–20°C.
Wind and Dust Storms: From March 11 to 13, 2025, moderate winds in Yemen’s desert areas, particularly in northern Hadramaut, may lead to dust storms. However, these storms are not expected to pose significant risks due to the limited exposure of agricultural communities and their assets.
Implications for Agricultural Livelihoods:
• Dry Spell Impact on Rainfed Crops: The limited rainfall in Yemen’s Central Highlands,
Southern Uplands, and coastal regions in early March 2025 will not alleviate ongoing drought conditions. Essential rainfed crops such as sorghum and barley will experience increased water stress, potentially leading to reduced yields. In desert areas, the scarcity of rain will put additional strain on irrigation systems and groundwater supplies, further exacerbating water shortages for agriculture and local communities.
• Soil Degradation and Reduced Pasture Availability: The combination of low rainfall and rising temperatures will accelerate soil degradation, impairing moisture retention and depleting vital nutrients necessary for crop growth. Extended dry periods will heighten soil erosion, especially in vulnerable farmlands and grazing areas, complicating upcom-ing planting efforts and reducing overall land productivity. In rangelands, insufficient rainfall will limit pasture regeneration, resulting in a shortage of fodder for livestock.
• Health and Infrastructure Challenges: Dust storms may deteriorate air quality, leading to an increase in respiratory issues among farming communities. Poor visibility caused by these storms could disrupt transportation, complicating access to markets for agri-cultural products.
• Food Security: Decreased agricultural production may lower local food availability, in-crease food prices, and escalate reliance on imports. Households’ dependent on rainfed farming and livestock may face income losses and food shortages, worsening dietary diversity and food insecurity.
Adaptation and Coping Strategies:
In preparation for the upcoming agricultural season, the FAO and its partners recommend the following measures:
• Farmers (Addressing Dry Spell Stress on Rainfed Crops): Farmers can mitigate water stress by implementing water-efficient irrigation methods, cultivating drought-resistant crops, and employing soil conservation techniques such as mulching and cover crops to retain moisture and enhance resilience.
• Livestock Herders (Tackling Soil Degradation and Reduced Pasture Availability): Herd-ers can safeguard their livestock by rotating grazing areas, supplementing feed with drought-resistant crops or commercially purchased feed, and ensuring access to addi-tional water, nutrients, and shade. Exploring alternative water sources can help secure resources during dry periods, while diversifying income through small-scale dairy enter-prises can lessen reliance on vulnerable herding, thus boosting resilience and economic stability.
• Humanitarian Actors: Humanitarian organizations should focus on repairing water infra-structure and promoting water conservation in high-risk areas. Soil rehabilitation ef-forts, including reforestation and agroforestry, can enhance fertility, while strengthen-ing early warning systems will better prepare communities for extreme weather events.