Agrometeorological Early Warning Bulletin (11 - 20 June 2025) [EN/AR]

SUSTAINED HIGH TEMPERATURES THREATEN AGRICULTURAL LIVELIHOODS IN YEMEN – SECOND DEKAD OF JUNE 2025

Yemen is expected to face consistently above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall throughout the second dekad of June 2025. Extreme heat is anticipated to continue in the eastern governorates and lowland areas. These dry conditions are likely to slow down planting activities and increase stress on crops, livestock, and the already limited water resources.

Key Concerns:

Ongoing Low Rainfall: During the second ten days of June, low rainfall is expected to continue, with some isolated light showers across the Southern Uplands. Conversely, the eastern governorates and coastal plains along the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea are likely to stay mostly dry, increasing the risk of soil moisture deficits. Most of the western and central highlands are also forecasted to receive below-average rainfall with moderate confidence (Seasonal Forecasts of IRI), further heightening the likelihood of soil moisture deficits and potentially negatively impacting crop and fodder growth.

Sustained High Temperatures: During the second dekad, daytime temperatures across Yemen are forecasted to remain exceptionally high. In the eastern desert regions, highs of 44–45°C are expected between the 17th and 18th, particularly in Hadramaut and Al Maharah governorates. Slightly lower, yet still intense, temperatures of 40–42°C are anticipated in Marib, Al Jawf, Shabwah, and along the coasts of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden (see Fig. 1 in the PDF). These values are about 2–3°C above the seasonal average, especially in lowland areas and the interior plateau. The persistent heat coupled with high evapotranspiration rates is likely to hasten soil moisture depletion, particularly in rainfed agricultural zones, thereby increasing crop water stress and potentially reducing livestock productivity.

Implications for Agricultural Livelihoods:

During the second dekad of June 2025, agricultural livelihoods in Yemen are at heightened risk due to a combination of persistent high temperatures and extended rainfall shortages.

Crop conditions:

• Early-maturing sorghum and millet crops in rainfed areas may face moisture stress during key growth stages.
• In irrigated areas, heat stress is highly likely to impact vegetables and fruit crops unless efficient water management practices are adopted.
• Elevated temperatures and dry conditions could lead to increased pest outbreaks, such as whiteflies and locusts.

Pasture and livestock conditions:

• Pasture regeneration in arid and semi-arid areas is expected to be limited, likely prompting herds to move toward higher-altitude areas with more available grazing.
• Heat stress presents a significant risk to livestock, potentially reducing productivity, increasing vulnerability to disease, and causing mortality if not effectively managed.

Adaptation and Coping Strategies:

To address the anticipated agrometeorological challenges, FAO and its partners recommend the following adaptation and coping strategies for farmers, livestock herders, and humanitarian stakeholders:

• Authorities are urged to distribute climate advisories and promote community-based monitoring efforts.
• Rainfed farmers should evaluate residual soil moisture before planting or replanting and prioritize irrigation during critical growth stages, such as fruit-setting.
• Farmers in transitional zones are advised to postpone new sowings unless soil moisture levels are sufficient, and to use mulch or shade nets to minimize soil moisture loss.
• Livestock owners should consider implementing temporary water storage solutions and providing shade to help mitigate heat stress