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MID-FEBRUARY'S DRY CONDITIONS, TYPICAL OF THE WINTER-SPRING TRANSITION, MAY NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE UPCOMING AGRICULTURAL SEASON
Yemen's mid-February marks the winter-spring transition but remains a dry period with limited rainfall nationwide. This is critical for agriculture, impacting both winter crops and spring planting preparations. February 2025's second dekad is expected to mirror the first (FAO-FSNIS), with similar rainfall and temperatures. This may result in insufficient soil moisture, hindering optimal planting and livestock development.
Key Concerns:
Risk of Extended Dry Spell: Yemen is expected to experience no rainfall during this period, except for isolated, minimal precipitation (approximately 5mm cumulative) along the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea coasts, and possibly in parts of the western Central Highlands and Socotra. These showers will not significantly improve soil moisture or vegetation. Prolonged dryness will likely reduce soil moisture levels, harming the germination and growth of crucial crops like wheat and barley.
Temperature Variations and Frost Risk: Temperatures this period will likely exceed those of the previous dekad, particularly along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts and the eastern plateau, with highs potentially reaching 25°C in Hadhramaut and Taizz. On the other hand, higher elevations in Dhamar, Ibb, and parts of Al Bayda and Shabwah may experience lows of 4°C, increasing the risk of light frost (see Fig. 1). This temperature contrast poses significant risks; cold weather slows plant growth, potentially shortening growing seasons and reducing yields. Sensitive crops like citrus fruits, bananas, and certain vegetables are especially vulnerable to frost damage.
Implications for Agricultural Livelihoods:
Prolonged dry condition severely impacts Yemen's agriculture and livestock. Reduced soil moisture hinders crop germination and growth, threatening wheat, barley, and other staple grains, potentially causing crop failure. Livestock face hypothermia, frostbite, and respiratory illnesses, with young and weak animals most at risk. Milk production and weight gain are also expected to be reduced. Dry conditions can sometimes lead to the proliferation of certain pests, which can further threaten agricultural yields.
Conversely, some crops may become more susceptible to diseases if stressed by very long dry spell. Dry conditions may increase pest infestations and crop disease susceptibility. Finally, water scarcity is likely to worsen, affecting both agriculture and communities' access to drinking water.
Adaptation and Coping Strategies:
Mitigation strategies include improved irrigation, drought-resistant crops, and better water management. Government and international organizations, such as the FAO, can play a crucial role by providing information, resources, and training to help communities adapt to the changing climate.