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Agrometeorological conditions are anticipated to improve with the onset of July, particularly in the highlands, due to increased seasonal rainfall. However, the ongoing hot and dry conditions in eastern and coastal areas will present significant challenges to pasture and irrigated agriculture, making this a transitional period with varied outlooks across different areas.
Key Concerns:
Convective Rainfall, but projected to be below normal: Throughout the first dekad of July 2025, the Northern and Central Highlands, as well as the Southern Uplands—including Amran, Hajjah, Sana’a, Dhamar, Ibb, Al Dhale’e, and Al Bayda—are forecasted to experience moderate to locally heavy convective rainfall. This is driven by seasonal shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and monsoon moisture inflows, with cumulative rainfall exceeding 60 mm, and isolated events potentially surpassing 100 mm in the most elevated areas of Ibb Governorate. These conditions pose a minimal flood risk, as the initial conditions from previous weeks remain favorable, particularly across the Zabid watershed (see Fig. 1). Although rainfall is resuming over the elevated lands of the country, it still remains below the average in about 40% of the region (Seasonal Forecasts of IRI).
Sustained High Temperatures with regional variations: Temperature patterns across Yemen are expected to vary markedly by governorates. In the highlands, including Sana’a, Dhamar, Ibb, and parts of Taizz, daytime temperatures will generally stay mild, ranging from 25°C to 30°C, with significantly cooler nights providing some relief for crops and livestock. Conversely, the eastern desert areas—such as Hadramaut and Al Mahrah—will continue to experience persistently high temperatures, resulting in ongoing heatwaves that pose serious threats to agricultural livelihoods. Additionally, maximum daytime temperatures along the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea are projected to reach average values of around 42°C, further intensifying heat stress on both agricultural systems and vulnerable communities (see Fig. 2).
Wind and Dust Storm Risks : During the first dekad of July 2025, moderate to strong winds, blowing between 20 and 35 km/h, are expected across Yemen’s coastal and desert regions. These wind conditions could increase the likelihood of localized dust storms, particularly in vulnerable areas such as Al Hudaydah, Al Mahrah, Marib, and extending to Sana’a. These dust storms may reduce visibility, disrupt transportation routes, and worsen air quality, posing health risks—especially to children, the elderly, and individuals with pre-existing respiratory conditions.