Attachments
Yemen: Demonstrations in Hadramawt highlight tensions between the Southern Transitional Council and Islah
In the Hadramawt valley region, a wave of demonstrations started on 7 December and lasted throughout the whole month. The protest campaign was triggered by President Rashad al-Alimi’s appointments in the region, contested by the local Youth of Anger movement.1 Demonstrations called for the replacement of pro-Islah forces of the 1st Military District with the UAE-backed Hadrami Elite forces, pursuant to the 2019 Riyadh agreement. On several occasions, the demonstrations were met with fire from forces of the 1st Military District and accounted for a 2,300% increase in demonstration events compared to the month prior in Hadramawt. The protest campaign was also surrounded by broader tensions in the governorate. On 13 December, the head of the Southern Transitional Council in Hadramawt was subject to an assassination attempt by unidentified gunmen in al-Mukalla city. Following this incident, the UAE-backed Giants Brigade were deployed to the governorate for the first time.
Iraq: Increased Islamic State activity in Kirkuk and Diyala
In the second half of December 2022, Islamic State (IS) activity increased in the northern Iraqi provinces of Kirkuk and Diyala. IS militants engaged in two targeted attacks against civilians and 30 political violence events involving Iraqi state forces, including the Popular Mobilization Forces. On 19 December, an IS attack on Albu Bali village in Diyala caused at least eight reported civilian fatalities and eight injuries. The day prior, a high-profile attack on the Iraqi security forces in Tarfawi village, Kirkuk, reportedly killed nine policemen. After the attacks, state forces intensified counter-IS operations in Diyala and targeted IS hideouts with high-casualties airstrikes around Lake Hamrin. These incidents contributed to an 87% increase in violent events compared to the month prior in Kirkuk and Diyala. Intensified IS activity was arguably connected with the transfer of “hundreds” of IS fighters from Syria into Kirkuk in mid-November. The crossing into Iraq allegedly followed the death of the former IS Caliph Abu al-Hasan al-Qurayshi.2
Syria: Intensified violence from Islamist factions coincides with Turkey-Syria talks
Throughout the month of December, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and al-Fatah al-Mubin — a militia comprised of a coalition of Islamist factions — intensified their attacks against regime forces in northern Syria. These attacks resulted in the reported deaths of dozens of regime fighters. Political violence involving Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and al-Fatah al-Mubin increased by 180% compared to the month prior in Syria, and was mostly concentrated in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. Intensified Islamist activity coincided with a diplomatic rapprochement between Turkey and the Syrian regime. Throughout December, consultations between the two countries paved the way for a high-profile meeting between defense ministers on 28 December, the first such meeting in 11 years of war.3 The Turkish-Syrian meeting provoked widespread public outrage within rebel-held areas, also leading to more than a dozen protests in northern Aleppo and northern Idlib denouncing any form of reconciliation with the Syrian regime.
Israel and Palestine: Return of Netanyahu amid heightened tensions in the West Bank
On 29 December, Benjamin Netanyahu was sworn in as Israel’s new prime minister, heading Israel’s most right-wing government in its history.4 Far-right politicians Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir were appointed as finance minister in charge of control over settlements and minister of national security in charge of law enforcement, respectively,5 prompting concerns that already high tensions with Palestinians in the West Bank may escalate even further.
During December, over 50 armed clash events were recorded between Israeli military forces and Palestinian armed groups in the West Bank, leaving at least nine Palestinian militants reportedly dead. Amid heightened tension in the West Bank, a brief exchange of fire broke out between Israel and Palestinian armed groups in Gaza, after a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) field commander was reportedly killed in an arrest raid near Jenin refugee camp.
Jordan: Nationwide unrest over rising gas prices
Large-scale nationwide demonstrations and rioting broke out for the first time since 2018 over hikes in fuel prices in early December. Initial peaceful protests by truck drivers turned violent, as rioters in the impoverished south attacked government property and clashed with police forces. In Maan, a police officer was reportedly fatally shot during a violent demonstration on 15 December. Four days later, police launched an arrest raid targeting the alleged shooter, leading to a shootout that reportedly left three police officers and the suspected shooter dead. Jordanian authorities allege that the suspect belonged to an Islamic fundamentalist “terrorist cell.”6 By late December, demonstrations declined amid internet blackouts, arrests of political activists, and a reduction in the price of oil derivatives as well as a temporary stop on kerosene tax.7
Iran: Sporadic continuation of unrest amid executions of demonstrators
On 8 December, Iran carried out the first execution of a demonstrator convicted over the anti-government unrest that has emerged since the death of Mahsa Amini in September. The 23-year-old demonstrator was convicted of blocking a street and wounding a Basiji.8 A second execution followed in the same week. About 100 demonstrators in Iran are at risk of execution, having either received the death penalty or been charged with capital crimes.9
While several demonstrations were held in response to the executions, the overall number of anti-government demonstrations decreased in December by more than 45% compared to the month prior. Sporadic demonstrations continued in at least 25 provinces across the country, with demonstrations turning violent on several occasions, particularly in Kurdish cities. Several arson and Molotov cocktail attacks were carried out by rioters against government buildings, as well as the home of security forces and the clergy. At least three demonstrators and one security force officer were reportedly killed during December.