ACAPS Briefing Note: Aden; Collapse of ceasefire, Yemen (16 August 2019)
Key risks and anticipated impact
4,500 civilians at risk of death or injury from urban conflict over a period of three months. Over 420,000 people would be trapped in their homes
1 million people at risk of disruptions to WASH and health services
+50,000 northern traders, workers, and IDPs in need of international protection against execution, deportation and retaliatory violence
Failure of peace talks leading to prolonged urban fighting in Aden could result in up to 4,500 civilian casualties over three months and cut access to services and markets for one million people.
The international community needs to work with the Southern Transitional Council to protect traders, workers and IDPs of northern origin residing in Aden, who have been targeted by militias for deportation, targeted killing and harassment.
Attempts to resolve the conflict by force risk inflaming historic tribal tensions and cutting off vital fuel, aid and transport services to the rest of Yemen.