1. STRATEGIC SUMMARY
Yemen faces complex and multi-dimensional humanitarian challenges, including ongoing displacement as a result of conflict and recurrent natural disasters. This plan intends to ensure adequate preparedness for a timely, appropriate and principled humanitarian response to rapid onset large-scale displacements or other unpredictable emergencies.
The objective of the plan is to outline the immediate humanitarian response requirements to assist people who may be affected by potential shifts in conflict dynamics in all hubs across the country for a period of up to six months (June to December 2020). Shifting frontlines, changes in control and extreme weather events may result in increased humanitarian needs, which will necessitate a timely scaled-up response.
This plan outlines the preparedness and response efforts planned. It covers displacement due to conflict and natural disasters with the aim of addressing the increased needs of the affected population based on two scenarios – (1) mostly likely and (2) worst case. The most likely scenario assumes that there are no major changes in conflict dynamics, rates of displacement remain the same and that heavy rainfall and flooding will occur within the next six months.
This contingency plan does not cover COVID- 19 preparedness and response as this is addressed separately through the National Preparedness and Response Plan that has been developed jointly with the Ministry of Public Health and Sanitation and the humanitarian community led by WHO. Furthermore, this contingency plan will not be costed due to current funding gaps addressed by the ongoing prioritization process.
Based on conflict dynamics and projected displacement figures and destinations, a total of 32,400 HH or approximately 226,800 individuals are expected to be displaced under the most likely scenario due to minor escalations of hostilities around main frontlines in Al Dhale’e, Al Hudaydah, Al Jawf, Marib and Taiz, in addition to minor displacement due to heavy rainfall and associated floods.
Under the worst-case scenario, an estimated 148,950 HH or approximately 1,042,650 individuals are expected to be displaced, majority of which due to significant escalation around Marib frontline, in addition to Al Dhale’e, Sana’a, Taiz, Al Jawf, as well as major impact of cyclones in the south.
In Hudaydah, an estimated 160,600 households of approximately 1,124,200 individuals are expected under this scenario to be displaced due to increased conflict in Hudaydah and Hajjah governorates, collapse of the Stockholm Agreement, and the occurrence of a natural disaster.
For preparedness planning purposes, humanitarian partners will plan for the most likely scenario, with the exception of Marib, where partners highlighted the need to plan for the worst-case scenario.
Accordingly, partners and clusters are to plan for a total of 83,400 HH (out of which 55,000 are projected to be displaced from Marib to various areas in southern Yemen).
The 2020 Yemen Contingency Plan aims to ensure the continuity of delivering lifesaving assistance to affected people in need (within 72 hours) and to continue for up to 30 days or until regular operations are established. The immediate response will rely on existing, pre-positioned humanitarian supplies. This may require partners to scale-up in line with the Contingency Plan. Activities foreseen in this plan fall within the framework of the 2020 Humanitarian Response Plan Extension with a focus on the most urgent needs to be addressed as a result of projected developments under the most likely scenario.
This plan is not exhaustive or predictive. It is based on available information and aims to contribute to a more coordinated and effective humanitarian response among humanitarian actors in Yemen. This plan is a living document, with scenariorelated displacement figures and response plans updated regularly should the situation on the ground change significantly.
All coordination bodies involved in the plan will regularly monitor developments, needs and response efforts on the ground.