Attachments
SPECIAL EDITION SECTION: WATER AND CLIMATE RISKS GROW AS RESOURCES TO ADDRESS THESE RISKS DECLINE
Recent evidence of growing global water and climate risks
- Prevalence of riots and protests demanding improved water management.
- 2015-2024 were the ten warmest years on record.
- Extreme drought areas have increased three-fold since the 1980s.
- One-quarter of world’s crops threatened by water risks.
- New research shows the increasingly important role of evaporation in driving drought conditions in the U.S. West.
- Natural disasters proved very costly in 2024.
- NASA scientists identify shifts in the global water cycle.
Recent evidence of declining resources to address these risks
- US terminates most USAID contracts.
- European foreign aid is also shrinking.
- UN unable to reach agreement on critical ways forward.
- US Department of Defense (DOD) ends funding for social science research.
- US famine early warning system disabled.
QUARTERLY OVERVIEW
PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT
These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first level subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges. See complete story in the following section.
Africa
- Somalia: Drought and erratic rainfall contributing to worsening food security outlook in Somalia.
- Kenya and Ethiopia: Violent clashes in Lake Turkana border region result in 30 deaths and thousands of displacements.
Asia
- India and Pakistan: India suspends the Indus Water Treaty after a deadly attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Middle East
- Iraq: City of Sayyid Dakhil declared a “disaster zone” due to severe water shortages.
- Iran: Farmer protests over water in the city of Isfahan met with violent suppression by regime forces.
OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST
These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest. See complete story below.
Africa
- Southern Africa: Concerns over aid for Southern African drought recovery.