Attachments
Key Results
WorldRiskIndex 2024
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The WorldRiskIndex 2024 assesses the disaster risk for 193 countries. It covers all United Nations member states and more than 99% of the world’s population.
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In 2024, the risk hotspots remain in the Americas and Asia, hosting eight of the ten countries with the highest risk scores. Over the long term, however, these hotspots will shift to countries with climate-sensitive exposure and high vulnerability.
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The top 10 countries with the highest risk have changed only slightly: Mexico and Colombia switch places, with Colombia now having the highest disaster risk in the Americas. China drops out of the group and Pakistan moves up to 10th place.
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China’s descent from tenth to 22nd place shows that despite high exposure, overall risk can be significantly decreased by reducing vulnerability. China remains the most exposed country in the world, followed by Mexico, Japan, and the Philippines.
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The country with the highest vulnerability is the Central African Republic, replacing Somalia. This year, Afghanistan has once again moved up into the group of the ten most vulnerable countries, meaning this group no longer consists exclusively of African countries.
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Germany improved slightly by four places and now ranks 98th in the world with a risk score of 4.1, placing it in the middle of the global rankings.
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The risk profile of many countries is shaped not only by extreme natural events and climate change but also by wars, conflicts, and uprisings. A special analysis based on the new Conflict Exposure Dataset by ACLED and WorldPop shows that Central and North Africa, South and Central America and South Asia are particularly affected by conflicts. Countries such as Colombia, Pakistan and Somalia each have high overall scores in the WorldRiskIndex and conflict exposure.
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By integrating other types of risk, like conflict or epidemic risks, indices such as the WorldRiskIndex can contribute to more holistic assessments and comparisons of risks. However, such integration implies methodological and conceptual challenges and cannot be achieved without revising the theoretical framework.
Focus: Multiple Crises
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Crises and risks are becoming increasingly complex and interconnected. Extreme weather events, conflicts and pandemics overlap and amplify each other. Global trends such as climate change, population growth and political polarization promote multiple crises and intensify their effects.
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Multiple crises can occur in different patterns and their impacts can be felt at the individual, regional and global levels. Holistic and anticipatory approaches are necessary to manage their far-reaching consequences and to address the complexity and interconnectedness of the risks.
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The global water crisis shows how climatic changes are harming people, agriculture and nature. Heavy rainfall, storms, floods, droughts and crop failures are on the rise. As a result, food security is declining worldwide, which can lead to health problems, regional conflicts and displacement.
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Existing risk analysis methods often focus on single drivers of risk and are limited when assessing compound risks. Innovative com pound risk analysis methods address the complex interactions between several hazards and consider the multidimensionality of vulnerability and exposure.
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Integrating comprehensive analytical techniques into practice and translating the findings into actual humanitarian measures remains a challenge. Closer collaboration between data scientists and humanitarian practitioners is needed.
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Disasters resulting from extreme natural events can trigger or escalate armed conflicts, especially when poverty, ethnic exclusion, past political violence or weak state institutions are already present.
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Disasters can reduce the risk of conflict by weakening the resources and mobility of the government and insurgents. (Inter)national attention can also motivate non-violent solutions.