THE SEASON SO FAR 3 • Most of Southern Africa has received good rainfall, the best in the season so far.
However, Angola, Madagascar and north Mozambique are experiencing drier-thanaverage conditions. The last November-January period was the driest since 1981 for south Madagascar.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS 4 • Recent tropical systems have had a positive impact on pastures, soil moisture and crop production and aided in alleviating dry conditions in persistent dry countries and areas.
IMPACTS 5 • The poor rainfall at the start of the season delayed the start of the growing season and most of Southern Africa had below than average vegetation. However, cyclonic weather and rains has improved the vegetation cover for most of Southern Africa.
SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK 6 • Anticipated tropical systems are likely to maintain wetter conditions and induce flash and localized flooding in cyclone prone countries. While these are favourable conditions for the growing season, there are possible negative impacts for crops to be harvested.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK 7 • The season is currently in a well established La Niña event bringing about wetter conditions in Southern Africa. The La Niña event is forecasted to neutralise in May.
AREAS OF CONCERN 8-10 • Southern areas of Madagascar and Angola are currently experiencing poor crop production due to the drought and drier-than-average conditions despite the current La Niña season. Mozambique offers a contrasting picture with the NE part experiencing drier-than-average conditions and the south and central half of the country experiencing wetter-than-average conditions and localized flooding.