ReliefWeb

Key findings

• The launch in 2013 of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 coincided with a strong upward trend in armed conflict to peak in 2015. The subsequent trend has been downward, with violence involving militant Islamist groups (and state responses) remaining the most resilient.

• It is unlikely that Africa will be able to ‘silence the guns by 2020’, or indeed by 2023. Yet progress in advancing peace, stability and growth is evident across the continent.

• Africa will remain turbulent because it is poor, young and badly governed, but also because it is growing and dynamic.

• Effective responses to violent Islamist extremism in key countries would rapidly reduce armed conflict in Africa.

• The countries likely to continue having high levels of armed violence are Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Sudan, Burundi, Libya, Cameroon, Angola and Chad.

• South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Tunisia, Algeria, Kenya and Somalia will probably continue experiencing high levels of political protest and riots, but Ethiopia, Chad, Niger, Cameroon, Rwanda, Madagascar and Angola have higher per capita protest levels.

• Violence is changing in Africa. The ballot, not the gun, is becoming the main source of political contestation, accompanied by a shift to urban rather than rural violence.

• In the long term only much more rapid, inclusive economic development combined with good governance and developmentally oriented leadership will make Africa less vulnerable to violence and instability

Recommendations

• African governments in countries affected by violent extremism should ensure effective civilian oversight of their security forces to avoid the negative impact of security force actions as an impetus to violent radicalisation.

• African governments need to roll out the basic functions of governing such as effective documentation of populations and cross-border management, improving the state of African police, military and intelligence functions, management of migration, refugees and displaced persons and the transformation of the criminal justice system.

• Given the size of Africa’s youth bulge, governments need to prioritise education and training opportunities and create jobs, as high rates of youth unemployment will exacerbate instability.

• The United Nations system needs to step up its commitment to peacekeeping in Africa as the most important, cost-effective and proven means through which to respond to conflict.

• The African Union and Regional Economic Communities should:

  • Prioritise their diplomatic, military and police efforts in countries with small populations such as in Liberia, Somalia, the Central African Republic and Burundi that have an extraordinarily high casualty burden.
  • Pay much greater attention to the quality of governance as the most effective conflict prevention and peace-building tool.